🇬🇧 Rishi Sunak has vowed to bring back National Service for 18-year-olds to create a “renewed sense of pride in our country” in his first major policy announcement of the election campaign.

 

Rishi Sunak: I will bring back National Service (telegraph.co.uk)

 

Ah, yes, getting the shambolic British Army ready for WW3...

 

5/29/24 Ukraine:

 

1. Zelensky claimed that the Russians are preparing another limited offensive NW of Kharkiv in order to further overstretch and put pressure on the ground force.  Previous to that some open sources claimed some 10,000 troops in the area and this grouping is expanding in size.

 

2. A new wonder-weapon crusade- this time Ukraine is lobbying to get the USA to allow them to attack targets inside of Russia with US missiles in the northern front.  Sweden will send a large arsenal of APCs to Ukraine .

 

3. Battle lines are now positional again and Russia accomplished its objective- Ukraine sent in numerous formations from their reserves or other fronts, including the NATO trained units that were burned out and were undergoing rebuilding.  Russian army has not escalated the offensive and is opting for a war of position again.

 

 Some estimate that Ukraine has 20,000 troops in the area and now heavily outnumber the Russian ground force that made the attack.  New Russian formations have also arrived in second echelon but are not attacking. 

 

4.  A very real possibility is that Russia does what Ukraine claims and re-open the Sumy front with a similar local offensive, forcing another dispersion of Ukrainian resources and troops.

 

6/1/24

 

- Apparently it appears that the claims of 'Sumy offensive' was part of Western MIC- NATO-Ukraine's propaganda lobbying to get US approval to strike targets in Russia (Belgorod region).  They got approval to use HIMARS rockets but not missiles.

 

-Russia gave passports to re-occupied citizens of Kharkiv Oblast.  Kharkiv Oblast is a heavily Russian-speaking and more pro-Russian region and it is possibly an area that Putin will annex in the future.

 

-Reflecting on Western claims that Russia received 5 million heavy artillery rounds and massively outproducing US-NATO combined over the past year- while impressive I am wondering if this is another lie by the Pentagon.  If this was true why haven't the Russians quickly blow up city after city like they did in 2022?  They were using millions of rounds then, up to 1.5 million a month.  Chasiv Yar hasn't been blown up, neither has Vochansk. 

 

If the Russians were determined to use these 5 million rounds they are supposed to have they could just steamroll the remaining Donbass cities and blow them up one by one but they haven't.  The other possibility is that this is not a Pentagon lie and these rounds are being stored for future offensive use.

 

Charming lady...

Quote

The harrowing case of Crystal Magnum: True crime doc lays bare twisted tale of stripper and escort who shot to infamy after falsely accusing three Duke lacrosse players of rape - before being convicted for stabbing her own boyfriend to death

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-13084601/crystal-mangum-escort-murder-true-crime-series.html

 

 

6/19  Various updates:

 

1. US-NATO is constantly claiming that Russia can produce huge numbers of artillery shells, 3 times that of NATO combined plus they receive "millions" from North Korea every time Putin visits.  These claims have been coming from the Pentagon for about 1.5 years but overall there is no evidence on the actual battlefield that Russia is using this ammunition.  The numbers claimed are so high that if Russia uses this ammo they can start steamrolling everything again. They simply claim this without providing any shred of evidence- it can be assumed that it is some kind of propaganda/misinformation until the Russians start blowing up entire cities again.

 

If this is not a full-on lie the Russians are storing all this ammo for a future invasion.

 

 

 

2. The area in the Toresk fortified zone appears to be a new active front- the first signs of Russian attacks has started.  

 

3. The Kharkiv' front is being heavily contested by Ukrainian reserves and the city of Vochansk is being fought over.  Ukraine is attacking here more than the rest of Ukraine combined.  It is obviously very important politically.

 

4. Ukraine claims of a Oskii river operation in a narrow segment of the Front SW of Svatove.  The Russian assault grouping is claimed to be 10,000 men and 250 AFV and 200 artillery systems. Basically this is typical Soviet tactics, advancing to a river, securing a bridgehead and then expanding it.

 

5. In the Adiivka front Ukraine claims that the Russians have 70,000 men, 310 tanks, 576 AFV engaged

 

6.  Remarkably as this war continues neither side has figured out how to avoid high tank losses- the guided artillery & drones still dominate.  The russians launched a local attack with 3 dozen vehicles (tanks + AFV) and lost a bunch for a small track of land gained. 

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

6/25

 

1. The Battle for Vovchansk is becoming increasingly obvious- it is another meatgrinder operation set up by the Russians.  Open sources reveal that both sides have up to 25,000 infantry and recon troops in the Kharkiv direction, basically numerical parity.  Total troop presence is up to 50,000 on both sides, so the battle involves 100,000 men combined.

 

 Ukraine has moved lots of strategic reserve units, the same units that were defeated in the 2023 counteroffensive to the area.  More than half of the units Ukraine has brough up are their designated attack units, and 3 more are in reserve near Kharkiv city.  They have been refitted, partially or in whole and probably half-trained.  The Russians started using 3000 KG glide bombs on them and the region is interdicted by drone, missile, air, and artillery strikes.

 

If the Russians are successful, which is likely so far, the Ukrainian ability to defend the Donbass will be degraded and the rate of Russian advance will increase.  However this Vovchansk battle will probably last a long time.  It will take at least weeks and at most months.

 

2.  The Russians took a village and a portion of the Toresk fortified zone and continue very slow but almost daily advances in the Adiivka front.  They also make marginal but frequent advances in the Chasiv Yar direction.   It is also apparent that they intend to reach the communications hub Povorsk and cut off the supply road feeding the Toresk- Niu York defense lines and tighten the encirclement of the area.  Marginal positional creep continues everyday on the other fronts.

 

3. The longer run objective appears to isolate Toresk- Niu York fortified zone with twin pincers in the Adiivka & Chasiv Yar fronts, and then eventually squeeze them out, clearing the area.  This will take them at least the rest of this year at the current rate.  However if the Ukrainian strategic reserve is crippled in the Kharkiv' direction, the Donbass defenses will soften.

 

The Russian army has developed the UMPK module for converting 3,000 KG bombs into precision guided munitions- They showed it off recently and are already using it to blow up Ukrainian economic & military targets.  So now a primary source of combat power is now these high-powered bombs.

 

Interestingly unlike the speculation that only Russian strategic bombers could use it- they managed to fit it under the SU-34 fighter-bomber pylons making it a munition for wide-scale daily use.  

 

This is after the Russian military re-started large scale production of FAB 3000 bombs in 2023.  

 

 

 

$175 billion, losing, and Ukraine is a shattered ruin/lost a quarter of its population/economic losses probably over 1.5 trillion, and more so everyday.  This does not even include the hundreds of billions spent by NATO (the dollar value of the entire reserve munitions arsenal and equipment transfers.)

8/4

 

Kharkiv' & Chasiv Yar fronts continue to be positional warfare.

 

A repeat of the usual partial encirclement operational tactics elsewhere.

 

Fortress Toretsk-Niu York will be pocketed until Ukrainian ground forces retreat.

 

 

Russian salient continues slow creep towards the key communications node of Pokrosvk

 

 

Ukrainian political leadership is now more open to negotiated peace, so this war may be coming to an end with the final result being a reduced Ukrainian state.

 

If Trump becomes president this will become more likely.

 

8/7 

 

Things heating up...

 

Russians broke into fortress Niu-York and clear rows of trenches- the defenses are crumbling.  

 

 

At the same time, Ukraine launched an armored offensive over the border in Kursk and captured some Russian border guards, with more forces being inserted as the battle develops.  So far the border guards appear to be overwhelmed and a real battle is developing.  In terms of terrain, this is the most successful Ukraine-NATO attack in over a year and it appears to be mainly for propaganda purposes and diverting Russian attention.

 

The Ukrainian attack troops are equipped with US armored vehicles.

 

 

A lot of footage appeared that claim that the Russians are strafing columns with airstrikes, helicopter gunships, lancet drones, and missile strikes.  1 Ukrainian Soviet BUK AA destroyed,  1  Russian KA-52 gunship shot down.

 

 

10/2/24

 

1.  The Kursk incursion over time has shown to be a purely propaganda & morale based attack, with its main achievement showing that the Russian army is more over-stretched than the world believes.  While it was well planned, the vast majority of the temporary gains was done in 48 hours.   By withdrawing troops from the Donbass Ukraine also weakened it and lost a lot of ground in the East.

 

Interestingly the Russians did not care much about reducing the pocket, with is mostly farmland with the largest settlement being a town with a pre-war population of 6,000 people.  They have surrounded it and have slowly reduced it but moved very few units to confront it.  So the propaganda claims from Ukraine that they are trying to 'weaken' Russian forces in the East has over time proven to be another fraud.

 

 

2.   Russian incursion in the Kharkiv direction has been static fighting for months with no real changes.

 

3.    Glacial but continuous positional creep forward in the Donbass

 

4.   Loss of fortress Niu York & penetration into fortress Toretsk

 

5.  

 

The most serious area is the Pokrovsk salient which is constantly growing and eating up all the towns in the area.  

 

6.  

 

The Russians finally took Vulhedar in recent weeks.  The fortress had repelled at least 2 major armored attacks over the past year with heavy russian tank losses.  The only way to take the small city was to positional creep around it and force the defenders to retreat.

 

 

 

 

Russian positional war continues without regard to Trump winning the election.  

 

Russian ground force abandons objective Pokrovsk (meaning that most commentators have been 'duped' to believing that they were aiming to take the strategic city) and encircles Ukrainian forces in the South.  Positional pressure shifted to the southern wing of the salient.  The loss of Vuledar re-activated the whole area.

 

 

 

 

The recent noise from the Trump camp still demonstrate considerable delusion about the strategic situation in Ukraine. They think Russia would consider it acceptable to freeze the front line with European NATO armies patrolling the border with a re-building Ukrainian ground force under US industrial support placed the rear. They act like they have bargaining chips that they don't have.

 

While they are not as retarded as US-UK-NATO they still have their heads in the clouds.

 

Throughout this war I have never heard anything intelligent or militarily competent from western leaders which has led to the current situation.

 

In negotiation Putin at minimum would demand the total withdrawal of Ukrainian ground forces from the remaining 30% or so of the 4 annexed provinces.  The Russian people would not consider it politically acceptable to consider anything less than that.

 

The Trump camp, and almost nobody in the West ever considers the very high possibility that the Russians are fighting this war like a larger version of Chechnya and that Russians have their own national & geostrategic interests like they do.

 

 

After US launched a missile strike in Russian territory, Putin responded with a nuclear threat by launching a new medium range ballistic missile that scatters into 36 different warheads at a Ukrainian MIC facility in Dnipro.  It appears to be hypersonic and very difficult to shoot down. And there isn't a lot of explosions, far less than a 500 kg bomb so it appears to be a 'warning shot'.