The Political Correctness Haters' Club

[Enrico_sw]

 

[Enrico_sw]

Here's something that most far left believers don't understand: the primary sector is way less important than the industry (secondary sector).

=> Europe colonised Africa because it was the first industrial power. Now, China colonises Africa, because it's the new industrial power.

 

The tertiary sector is useful to some extent, but when it's over-bloated, it's a mirage, a bubble (like the tulips were during the Dutch golden age). DEI jobs are the most worthless and overpaid jobs in the world.

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There's been several remarkable developments over the past 3 weeks.

 

1. The loss of Adiivka fortified city has triggered a wave of local Russian attacks across the front, several towns were taken and others are being infiltrated, the Ukr army retreated and is now defending several towns west of Adviika. The Russians destroyed the first US M1 Abrams.

 

2.  These are just an intensification of positional fighting but nothing that implies any serious attempt at offensive yet.  Russia is still developing and holding a large reserve army that is not being used for the war in Ukraine but for a potential war with NATO ground forces.  Today, Russia re-established Moscow & Leningrad military districts as planned last year.   

 

3. It is notable that Russia has not attempted any serious armored operations since 2022, they are clearly accumulating forces and even the armor in Ukraine is very sparingly used.  Ukrainian propaganda channels claim that Russian army has completely restocked their armored force in Ukraine itself and unlike in 2022 the current Russian force in Ukraine is maintained at a stable level of strength.

 

4.  The loss of Adiivka has interestingly spooked the US-UK military, all of a sudden there is alarmist coverage on the war, like in the past it appears to aimed at trying to reboot interest and $$ for the war effort by claiming that Ukraine is out of ammo and "starting to 'lose'. " However the intensity of the propaganda is nowhere as much as in 2023 and the overall political climate in the West is weakening interest in the war.  NATO-Ukraine has already admitted that they are in a strategic dead end and have no solution except fanaticism. 

 

5. Overall it looks like it's not in Russia's interest to advance at all on the map, everytime they do the West uses it to stimulate politics of military aid.  However the constant concealment of the high Ukrainian losses has the ironic result of making it safe for them to quietly conduct positional warfare with missile, artillery, and drone strikes everyday.

 

6. The sudden success of the Russian forces in Adiivka was accomplished by 4 infantry brigades largely staffed by reservists.  These are older men in their mid-late 30s, likely with families.  

 

Throughout the war Putin has been noticeably sparing of his reservists that were called up 2022.  They had been largely used in the defense rather than offense. They have sacrificed the professional-contract troops of 2022, the convicted criminals and the Ukrainian separatists but the ordinary people with political weight inside Russia have not been used in aggressive offensive operations.

 

Putin has repeatedly assured Russians that he will not need to do a 2nd round of mobilization of reservists.  Given the political fallout that would happen if he does I doubt that the Russian army in Ukraine will attempt aggressive offensive operations with men with families.

 

7.  It is more and more looking like this is the beginning of the final act of the war in Ukraine.  Unless NATO or Russia launch a powerful second invasion the war will end on the negotiation table after Ukraine caves in from the catastrophic damage inflicted onto it. 

[Enrico_sw]

 

[Enrico_sw]

 

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The Ukrainian defense line West of Avdiivka hinged on 3 towns is currently collapsing, one town has already been taken and Ukr troops are in two pockets.   

 

It appears that the Russians are attacking with 6 x motorized infantry brigades and are trying to advance as much as possible before the front solidifies again.  They also moved 90th Tank Division as a reserve not long ago.

 

If a bulge is created - the Avdiivka salient- this would outflank the donbass defenses, making it easier to roll forward the front incrementally to the West.

 

 The long-term strategic direction is quite obvious- Pokrovsk city is the key communications hub that if captured, would creation conditions to outflank the rest of the Donestk Oblast, meaning that the Key Donbass cities would not even need to be fought for. 

 

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Ukraine sent reserves to contest the second line of defense and currently it's a stalemate at Adiivka.

 

A lot of interesting insights from this year's combat so far that show signs of what to expect in the future.

 

1. Russian army finally using reservists in a doctrinally correct and serious manner in offensive operations after 2 years of war.    Supplementing the reservists are penal assault companies (storm Z).  The battle of the Adiivka salient uses a mixture of Ukrainian and Russian conscripts.

 

Russia still refuses to do a second round of mobilization and rely on the 2022 cadre.  Ukr/Ru sources claim 600,000-430,000 men in the Russian army vs 900,000-750,000 Ukrainians.  The Russian inferiority in manpower is countered by their vast superiority in firepower, they still vastly outsupply the combined West in artillery and now use 200-300 high precision bombs (UMPK and KAB) per day in airstrikes.

 

2.  The Russians are constantly building up their armored forces, refusing to commit armor in mass outside of local operations, and have used armor as assault guns since late 2022.  All these offensives have been conducted by Infantry with limited armored support.  At least 3 x US M1 Abrams and 2 x obstacle breaching vehicles on the Abrams chasis has been knocked out in 1 week of combat, mainly by Russian drones.

 

Tanks, even the most expensive ones- continue to be deathtraps, Leopard 2 and Challenger have been easily eliminated as well.  Ukraine admitted that they have largely pulled the Leo2 out of service with 26 totally destroyed and the rest damaged & broke down (100+ losses)

 

3. The past few months show a formula of sorts:  In 'quiet periods', nonstop positional fighting with airstrikes, artillery & drones plus limited ground recon and missile strikes.  In particular FPV drone warfare is literally the dominant form. During the offensive phase, ramp up airstrikes in local sectors (SU-24, SU-34, SU-35) with guided bombs to bomb the infantry forward.  

 

4.  However, territorial progress is still quite slow as it's just Russian infantry that's advancing on foot.  The Russian army is outnumbered 1.5 to 1.  With this ratio they will always have to rely on local operations in small sectors of the front. 

 

This war will last for years unless 1. Ukrainian military collapses on the frontline and the civilian population get tired of war  2. NATO introduces ground forces triggering WW3 3. Russia finally launches the second armored invasion of Ukraine.  4.  Both sides do a peace deal.  5. Or Russia dramatically increases troop presence in Ukraine to at least parity in manpower and then superiority.

 

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Victoria Nuland, third-highest ranking US diplomat and critic of Russia's war in Ukraine, retiring | AP News

 

Chickenhawk Warmonger Nuland "retiring", she is one of the architects of dragging the US into this mess in Ukraine.

 

The Kagans are pretty much a chicken-hawk crime family at this point- from the middle east to eastern europe.  They are mentally trapped in 1995 and still believe that the American empire will last for a thousand years.  They've spend their entire lives trying to get the US involved in as many wars as possible.

 

I have read ISW for two years (Kimberly Kagan is the president).  There is so much made-up war mongering garbage and propaganda generated on a daily basis from this influential think tank that it has certainly influenced public opinion during the war on terror and in Ukraine.

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On 2/24/2024 at 11:05 AM, Enrico_sw said:

Here's something that most far left believers don't understand: the primary sector is way less important than the industry (secondary sector).

=> Europe colonised Africa because it was the first industrial power. Now, China colonises Africa, because it's the new industrial power.

 

The tertiary sector is useful to some extent, but when it's over-bloated, it's a mirage, a bubble (like the tulips were during the Dutch golden age). DEI jobs are the most worthless and overpaid jobs in the world.

 

In the US & UK- it was mainly the conservative right that de-regulated and de-industrialized both countries to a staggering degree, leading to the creation of a lot of poverty and disfunction in society.  The Unions were on the left.

 

The great irony now is that NATO is so de-industrialized that even the physical security is compromised.

 

The majority of service jobs come from the result of the bloated overdevelopment and overcompetition (I believe there is such a thing!) of industries- the physical/tangible 'wealth' of the society itself has not improved much at all (and even decrease) and the psychological-physical cost on human well-being and health can increase as it has in the US & Asia.  

 

There is evidence of this everywhere in the US, from health care, education to finance etc.

 

Overcompetition passes the high costs down to the end-user- the consumer of the good or service.  Consumers are also not "perfect economic actors'- they also can be "captured" much more easily than economic theories assume with aggressive propaganda/marketing and lock-in by powerful corporations/industries.

 

Basically my general point is that the way economics thinking and education was developed is from academics in the 20th century.  Times have changed.  These overarching theories did not in cooperate all the myriad contradictions and complexities of the real world.  I also think that it is too obsessed with "quantification" and counting money- rather than an integrated qualitative/holistic AND quantative approach.

 

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Chinese Korean war movie- the only film I've seen with American soldiers getting beaten and killed in mass lol

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Conspiracy theories about Boeing now..  😵

 

Boeing whistleblower found dead in US (bbc.com)

[SympathysSilhouette]

3 hours ago, Cult Icon said:

Conspiracy theories about Boeing now..  😵

 

Boeing whistleblower found dead in US (bbc.com)

 

Seems like parts have dropped off their planes almost once a week this year.

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A lot of mainstream media headlines admitting strategic failures of NATO this past 2 weeks admitted by the US-UK military and CIA- 

 

The Ukraine war 'We can Win' Scam may be coming to an end, after two years of propaganda and fraud.  The disinformation specialists of Ukraine and the Western countries will as usual, not be held responsible for war crimes and ruining a country & killing hundreds of thousands of people.

 

1. UK chief of general staff: 80% of Ukr-NATO drones fail due to Russian Electronic Warfare

2. Ukraine: 500,000-400,000 new Ukranian conscripts sought...

3. US officials: US-NATO combined is outproduced by Russia 3 to 1 in artillery shells 
4. CIA Director Burns- At the current situation, Negotiations with Russian-favorable terms will occur in 1 year.

5.  Ukraine military short on ammunition and supplies, on a defensive diet. 

6.  The Telegraph is filled with desperate British military propaganda articles about 'Support Ukraine to prevent WW3', Ukraine is not losing etc.., they literally send out a notification everyday.

[Enrico_sw]

 

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5 hours ago, Enrico_sw said:

 

 

I wonder if Elon Musk has political ambitions (as Trump 2.0).  He said no but his account on twitter is extremely political.

[SympathysSilhouette]

7 hours ago, Cult Icon said:

 

I wonder if Elon Musk has political ambitions (as Trump 2.0).  He said no but his account on twitter is extremely political.

 

Not only that, but most CEOs would avoid being so clear about their political leanings.

[SympathysSilhouette]

On 3/14/2024 at 3:00 PM, Cult Icon said:

 

 

The Ukraine war 'We can Win' Scam may be coming to an end, after two years of propaganda and fraud.  The disinformation specialists of Ukraine and the Western countries will as usual, not be held responsible for war crimes and ruining a country & killing hundreds of thousands of people.

 

 

 

Russia invaded so I don't see how those deaths are anyone else's fault. I can't believe the extent to which Russian propaganda is now being gobbled up.

 

Also, it's pretty clear that the Kremlin's ambitions go far beyond Ukraine. So even if they completely abandoned Ukraine, we are probably going to be on this very same merry go around within five years, only this time for the Baltics or Poland.

[SympathysSilhouette]

Medvedev saying that Latvia does not exist, but I'm sure they will be content with just Ukraine.