elfstone Posted February 26, 2022 Posted February 26, 2022 So fucking prediictable! How did I miss this? Jean-Luc Brunel: Epstein associate found dead in Paris prison cell Quote
Enrico_sw Posted February 26, 2022 Posted February 26, 2022 2 hours ago, SympathysSilhouette said: What is the long-term prospect even if Putin wins? I don't think he can support an occupation. He doesn't have the means to do so, even if you don't even factor in Ukrainian nationalists who will be desperate to drag the occupying force into a bloody insurgency. So what does he gain? Annexation of a part of the country (to the East)? What else? If the entire idea was no longer to have a pro-EU/NATO presence on his border, that doesn't change if he has to leave some of the country outside of his control. But he definitely lacks the resources to occupy a country the size of France, with a population of 44 million. I don't get Putin. He's usually a calculating guy. Cold but calculating. He made a very big mistake here. He escalated very quickly. He also threatened to use his nukes, which is unprecedented. He could've played the power games without getting that far; he'll be treated as unreasonable by many people now. Xi is probably happy to see us destabilized (and it will favour his move on Taiwan), but it's clear he dislikes the brutality of this move. Xi is a much smoother operator in the end. He buys his enemies (including the Americans) and uses economic forms of colonization, which are way more subtle. Quote
Enrico_sw Posted February 26, 2022 Posted February 26, 2022 37 minutes ago, Matt! said: I really like Klitschko. He's a strong voice and a great fighter. Quote
Enrico_sw Posted February 26, 2022 Posted February 26, 2022 25 minutes ago, elfstone said: So fucking prediictable! How did I miss this? Jean-Luc Brunel: Epstein associate found dead in Paris prison cell Quote
Enrico_sw Posted February 26, 2022 Posted February 26, 2022 19 minutes ago, Enrico_sw said: I don't get Putin. He's usually a calculating guy. Cold but calculating. He made a very big mistake here. He escalated very quickly. He also threatened to use his nukes, which is unprecedented. He could've played the power games without getting that far; he'll be treated as unreasonable by many people now. Xi is probably happy to see us destabilized (and it will favour his move on Taiwan), but it's clear he dislikes the brutality of this move. Xi is a much smoother operator in the end. He buys his enemies (including the Americans) and uses economic forms of colonization, which are way more subtle. Putin's actions don't make sense and seem very rash. It's definitely a negative-sum game and Russia has a lot to lose. I really don't get it. I hope he hasn't lost it, cause this would be very bad Quote
SympathysSilhouette Posted February 26, 2022 Posted February 26, 2022 17 minutes ago, Enrico_sw said: I don't get Putin. He's usually a calculating guy. Cold but calculating. He made a very big mistake here. He escalated very quickly. He also threatened to use his nukes, which is unprecedented. He could've played the power games without getting that far; he'll be treated as unreasonable by many people now. Xi is probably happy to see us destabilized (and it will favour his move on Taiwan), but it's clear he dislikes the brutality of this move. Xi is a much smoother operator in the end. He buys his enemies (including the Americans) and uses economic forms of colonization, which are way more subtle. Xi can't move on Taiwan as easily as Putin can on Ukraine. For one thing, his relation to the Chinese military (which is a separate column of Chinese society altogether) isn't like Putin's. In essence, the Chinese brass will only consider an incursion into Taiwan if they themselves deem it opportune. They aren't beholden to Xi in the traditional sense. They are more like the Turkish military once upon a time, until Erdogan neutered them a bit. And probably more significantly, an invasion of Taiwan would be a very complicated thing. We are talking a degree of difficulty that would rival operation Overlord. It is certainly an operation that would require a huge amount of resources and years of preparation. And would need to be launched at a very specific time of the year to even stand a chance. So I don't think however Putin's incursion into Ukraine turns out, it will be at all instructive to China as a playbook for Taiwanese ambitions on their part. Quote
Enrico_sw Posted February 26, 2022 Posted February 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, SympathysSilhouette said: Xi can't move on Taiwan as easily as Putin can on Ukraine. For one thing, his relation to the Chinese military (which is a separate column of Chinese society altogether) isn't like Putin's. In essence, the Chinese brass will only consider an incursion into Taiwan if they themselves deem it opportune. They aren't beholden to Xi in the traditional sense. They are more like the Turkish military once upon a time, until Erdogan neutered them a bit. And probably more significantly, an invasion of Taiwan would be a very complicated thing. We are talking a degree of difficulty that would rival operation Overlord. It is certainly an operation that would require a huge amount of resources and years of preparation. And would need to be launched at a very specific time of the year to even stand a chance. So I don't think however Putin's incursion into Ukraine turns out, it will be at all instructive to China as a playbook for Taiwanese ambitions on their part. Who talked about a military invasion? His "move" doesn't have to be military. Xi has many opportunities to weaken Taiwan (economically, politically, socially) to make it "ripe for the taking". China is patient, very patient, it plays the long run game. Look at Hong Kong: China played an extremely refined strategy. They use the propaganda tools in a much smoother way that the Russians. China just buys all the influencers (like the NBA, Disney, etc.) and make them censor people defending Hong Kong or the Uyghurs. It also has lots of politicians in its pocket; not in an "outrageous" way, they don't "corrupt" per se, they just buy influence (which is the legal version of it ). They know the rules of commerce and how to play the game. Regarding military operation, Taiwan is an island which changes everything. You don't invade an island, just like that. The Nazis failed with the UK, because of that (and many before them). The aircraft they send over Taiwan a couple of days ago was just a test. They see Westerners are as weaklings ("Baizuo") and they see Putin's move as an opportunity to test our resistance. As for the military, they have a very similar view on Taiwan: to them, it's part of China. If one day (in the very long run), Taiwan is ripe for the taking, there's no doubt they'll agree. But in my mind, they'll just use other tactics and wait for the Taiwanese to be ready to sell themselves to continental China. Quote
SympathysSilhouette Posted February 26, 2022 Posted February 26, 2022 Things just got very interesting. If an escalation is coming, it'll happen soon. Quote
Cult Icon Posted February 26, 2022 Posted February 26, 2022 The relationship between Taiwan and PRC isn't as bad as the relationship between Ukraine and Russia. While obviously the PRC wants the Island, they also do a lot of business with each other. Ukrainian-Americans hate Russia. So do Poles. China has the ability to take the Island of course. Taiwan is also a 1st world country, high income with a South-Korea like military. It is also mountainous in areas, and the male population like South Korea all have served 2 yrs in the military. The Russian military, para-military, and police/guards hold the largest country in the world along with hostile areas like Chechnya, they can occupy the Ukraine if they want to... Quote
Matt! Posted February 27, 2022 Posted February 27, 2022 1 hour ago, SympathysSilhouette said: Things just got very interesting. If an escalation is coming, it'll happen soon. It's already happening. United States, Canada, European allies move to block 'selected' Russian banks from SWIFT The United States, Canada, and other European allies released a joint statement on additional sanctions being placed on Russia, which states that "selected" Russian banks are removed from the SWIFT financial system. "We commit to ensuring that selected Russian banks are removed from the SWIFT messaging system. This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally," reads the joint statement from leaders of the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States, which was released on Saturday. Click here to read more on Fox Business Quote
Cult Icon Posted February 27, 2022 Posted February 27, 2022 NATO has been offering assistance but all these Anti-armor (RPG) and Anti-aircraft (Stinger) equipment are just small arms for infantrymen... What they could really use is air support but that could be too dangerous, politically, to pull off. The Ukrainians actually have a lot of tanks themselves. Their country has some 2,200 tanks last I checked, and if this order of battle is accurate, the Russians don't have many pure tank units involved at all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_battle_for_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine Order of Battle: "Guards" designation generally mean higher quality. Especially 1st Guards Tank Army (elite Russian formation- designed for exploitation). The "combined arms" units are designed for heavy breakthrough of strong defenses. The bulk of the Russian units are regulars, not Guards. Per Russian/Soviet combat doctrine and the terrain in the Ukraine, what the Russians would do is to hold 1st Guards Tank Army in reserve. After the combined-arms units break through Ukraine's outer defense crust, and the flanks of the breakthrough are rolled up, the Russians will insert the 1st Guards Tank Army and race through the Ukrainian plains- perfect tank country (and tank killing country) and cause mayhem in their rear. The war is probably as good as lost if this happens. It will be up to the Ukrainians to hold the line and counter-attack, whatever the cost and prevent the Russians from turning their penetrations into breakthroughs & exploitation. A major advantage they have is that the Russians aren't very numerous at the strategic level. They aren't deploying their traditional numerical superiority here. However they could easily concentrate local superiority in various areas and create penetrations. So given these conditions, there wouldn't be a Russian blitzkrieg, but more like a step-by step "cracking" of the defense crust until the Russians find an ideal area for a breakthrough. They will push back the Ukrainians incrementally, until they see a vulnerable point. In Russian thinking, this is the "knock on 10 doors until 1 opens" method. my educated guess! Quote
Cult Icon Posted February 27, 2022 Posted February 27, 2022 The situation looks worse today, the ukrainians lost significant ground https://liveuamap.com/ Looks like the Russians are aiming at performing encirclements, cutting the country in half. My guess is that they will pincer move from the north and the south (Kyiv and the Crimea). These are old, massive battlefields- names, terrain features, and locations- that the Russian generals are very aware of and Russian historians study & publish. Their forefathers fought over this real estate over and over again against the Germans in WW2. Millions of casualties. Kiev, Uman, Kharkov, Odessa, Metripol, Nikopol, Kryvoi Rog, Zhitomir, Donets, Cherkassy, etc, all these areas are classic WW2 battlegrounds.. The Russians hit them with missiles & air strikes.. Quote
Cult Icon Posted February 27, 2022 Posted February 27, 2022 ^ Kyiv under attack, house to house fighting on the outskirts today. The Russians are also closing in on Chernihiv, to the NE. Ukrainian forces claim that they intercepted and knocked out a Russian convoy heading into Chernihiv. Phone pics of Russian missile system (claiming) in Molodizhne, Kherson, meaning that the Russians are advancing from the South: https://t.me/milinfolive/77230 Yesterday's civilian casualties (2/26) increased to 198 dead 1,115 injured https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3413511-update-on-russian-invasion-198-civilians-including-three-children-killed-in-ukraine.html Quote
Matt! Posted February 27, 2022 Posted February 27, 2022 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-puts-nuclear-forces-high-alert-2022-02-27/ Here we go. Quote
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