A tally of Russian MOD claims of degrading Ukrainian units in the Donbass 7/5- 7/14.  I do not include claims of material losses and command posts.

 

So basically, prior to the 7/13 general ground assault, they launched strategic attacks: massed airstrikes and missile clusters on top of the general artillery offensive.

 

The claimed results were thousands of Ukr casualties, many command posts struck, and a lot of material losses.

 

Quote

7/14

 In the vicinity of the village of Chasov Yar of the DPR, the high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit the temporary deployment point of the battalion of the 14th Mechanized Brigade, staffed by nationalists and foreign mercenaries. As a result of the strike, 43 militants were killed, about 170 were wounded. In the area of the village of Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporozhye region, Russian army aviation struck with high-precision missiles at the point of temporary deployment of the 97th battalion of the 60th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 30 nationalists were killed and another 37 wounded.

High-precision strikes in the areas of the settlements of Bereznegovatoye in the Mykolaiv region, Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk of the Donetsk People's Republic, hit the points of temporary deployment of units of the 35th Marine Brigade, the 54th Mechanized Brigade, the 81st Airmobile Brigade and the 109th Territorial Defense Brigade. As a result of the strikes, the total losses of these formations amounted to up to one thousand personnel and more than 100 units of weapons and military equipment.

7/12- 7/5As a result of the strike with high-precision air-launched missiles in the area of the village of Artemovsk of the Donetsk People's Republic, 180 servicemen and 26 units of military equipment of the 30th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed.

The situation is critical in the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, operating in the Area of Seversk. The losses of this unit during the hostilities amount to more than 70 percent of the personnel.

As a result of the strike of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the positions of the artillery battalion of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the village of Soledar, more than 30 percent of the servicemen were destroyed and most of the artillery pieces were withdrawn.

As a result of a high-precision strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces in the city of Kramatorsk, two launchers of the Tochka-U missile system and more than 150 nationalists were destroyed.

 In the area of the city of Artemovsk of the Donetsk People's Republic, the Russian Aerospace Forces hit temporary deployment points and ammunition depots of units of the 14th and 72nd mechanized, as well as the 10th mountain assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Up to 350 personnel and 20 units of armored combat vehicles were located at the destroyed facilities

 As a result of strikes with high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the combat positions of Ukrainian troops in the Soledar direction, the total losses of the 24th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine already number about 2.5 thousand people, which is 60 percent of its number. The 79th Airborne Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was almost completely destroyed - its losses exceeded 80 percent of the number of personnel.

 

 

17 hours ago, SympathysSilhouette said:

 

1. Russia's territorial ambitions do not end with Ukraine. Putin has even admitted this publicly.

2. The Ukrainians under Russian rule are being treated terribly. So I don't get the argument how they would be better off just giving up entirely on those people.

 

US/NATO does not really care about the well-being of the "Ukrainian people", this is a proxy war against Russia, a desire to "weaken" her.  The Ukrainian people are being sacrificed as human collateral in an unnecessary war.  Plus, their cities and towns are being destroyed.  

 

Russians are mainly interested in retaking the pro-Russian/Russian speaking provinces of Ukraine.  It is not likely that they will invade Poland and start WW3.    US/NATO failed to realize that the Russians took NATO encroachment and investment in developing the Ukrainian armed forces for 8 years seriously.  

 

Perhaps a March 2022 deal would involve half- de-militarizing Ukraine and giving them the DRP/LRP territories, thus returning to the pre-2014 status quo.  

36 minutes ago, Cult Icon said:

 

US/NATO does not really care about the well-being of the "Ukrainian people", this is a proxy war against Russia, a desire to "weaken" her.  The Ukrainian people are being sacrificed as human collateral in an unnecessary war.  Plus, their cities and towns are being destroyed.  

 

Russians are mainly interested in retaking the pro-Russian/Russian speaking provinces of Ukraine.  It is not likely that they will invade Poland and start WW3.    US/NATO failed to realize that the Russians took NATO encroachment and investment in developing the Ukrainian armed forces for 8 years seriously.  

 

Perhaps a March 2022 deal would involve half- de-militarizing Ukraine and giving them the DRP/LRP territories, thus returning to the pre-2014 status quo.  

 

They do care about territorial ambitions of Putin & co. If he can just carve chunks out of any country he likes, why exactly would he stop at Ukraine? Especially since he has already admitted they have no intention of limiting themselves to Ukraine.

This isn't about NATO "caring" or not about the Ukrainian people, but them caring about a Russia that believes it can just do whatever it likes without any consequences.

 

Also, the Ukrainian people still want to fight. Until that changes, why would NATO stop giving them their support?

Nations win allies by extending them an olive branch, not war mongering and spamming the US/UK media with fictious propaganda.  Cold War 2 should have been stopped at all costs.   The best defense against Russian aggression is to keep their military as small as possible.  This is not best done by war but by removing perceived threats.

 

Putin is not Adolf Hitler.  The Russian people want culturally "Russian lands" that was lost since the fall of the Soviet Union, not Eastern Europe.  They see Ukraine as an artificial country created by the fall, and a great shame.  They also see NATO as encroaching on Russia.  In a way Putin is giving his constituents what they want.   It is clear that a lot of Ukrainians are dying for Russia.  Half of "Russian" casualties have been taken by DRP/LRP militamen.  The US/NATO gamble was to prepare the Ukrainian armed forces sufficiently to repel the Russians.  So far they have failed, and Russia is on track to win the war and declare victory over the US/NATO, and Ukraine.

 

War only creates losers.  The main difference is 'who has lost more'?  The damage will extend for many years, well past the end of this war.  Now the Russians have the best excuse they could ever have for rebuilding the Soviet military and threatening all of Europe and making the US massively increase its defense expenditures. 

 

 

The US and NATO military advisors that worked in the Ukraine for years must have known that the only way to prevent the Russians from breaking into the strategic depths of the country was to have artillery superiority.

 

Instead Ukraine had vast artillery inferiority.

 

However I am thinking that it would have been impossible to store millions of heavy artillery rounds, thousands of artillery drones, and another 3000-2000 artillery pieces without a Russian response.  It would have to be concealed in NATO member nations.  The training of tens of thousands of artillery personnel would have to be concealed somehow.

New footage of the capture of Gostomel airport by Russian paratroopers. (odysee.com)

 

This airborne operation is presented as a "success" from the Russian side while the Ukrainian/US/NATO commentators call it a fiasco.  These types of polar-opposite interpretations are common in war, with extreme bias exhibited by analysts of the opposing side.

 

Battle of Antonov Airport - Wikipedia

 

Battle of Hostomel - Wikipedia

 

Day 2 of the offensive

 

The Russians call the 'final bastion' the "Donbass Arc", due the curvature and highway that connects the strategic towns.  

15 hours ago, Cult Icon said:

Nations win allies by extending them an olive branch, not war mongering and spamming the US/UK media with fictious propaganda.  Cold War 2 should have been stopped at all costs.   The best defense against Russian aggression is to keep their military as small as possible.  This is not best done by war but by removing perceived threats.

 

Putin is not Adolf Hitler.  The Russian people want culturally "Russian lands" that was lost since the fall of the Soviet Union, not Eastern Europe.  They see Ukraine as an artificial country created by the fall, and a great shame.  They also see NATO as encroaching on Russia.  In a way Putin is giving his constituents what they want.   It is clear that a lot of Ukrainians are dying for Russia.  Half of "Russian" casualties have been taken by DRP/LRP militamen.  The US/NATO gamble was to prepare the Ukrainian armed forces sufficiently to repel the Russians.  So far they have failed, and Russia is on track to win the war and declare victory over the US/NATO, and Ukraine.

 

War only creates losers.  The main difference is 'who has lost more'?  The damage will extend for many years, well past the end of this war.  Now the Russians have the best excuse they could ever have for rebuilding the Soviet military and threatening all of Europe and making the US massively increase its defense expenditures. 

 

 

 

Russia has a GDP of around 3x Belgium. They are no threat in any conventional war for a EU that is going to spend 2% or more on defense (mostly due to this Ukrainian aggression). They have encountered logistical problems even when attacking a neighbor country. Imagine what would happen to their supply lines if they are fighting 30+ countries.

 

Their sabre rattling is only worrisome due to the nuclear option. But even that constitutes a murder-suicide reality for them, since there would not be Russia the day after they launch a major nuclear strike.

 

As for Ukraine, no one can blame them for not wanting to live under the rule of these people:

 

 

 

The Pro-Russia parts of Ukraine are in the South and East.  A lot people in these regions prefer to be Russian and consider themselves Russian.  The rest of the country gravitates towards the West.   The majority of the country's natural resources are already occupied by Russia (South and East). 

 

 Overall Ukraine is a very bad and corrupt country, it's pre-war GDP per capita was like 35% of Russia's.  Their politicians are highly corrupt which has gotten their people in this mess.  Their military reporting is highly corrupt and inaccurate too.  The Ukrainian people are victims of their poor leadership too, besides the Russians.

 

Both Russia and Ukraine's military capabilities are much higher than their supposed "poverty" as they inherited multiple decades of Soviet military industrial complex R & D, and infrastructure.  Ukraine is mostly fighting with Soviet weapons and ammunition that was produced pre 1991.   Russia, to a lesser extent is fighting with old weapons too. Ukraine, when it was part of the Soviet Union, was a frontline province with a lot of factories for high tech and industrial production and enormous amounts of weapons, equipment and soldiers.  When the Soviet Union fell, Ukraine went into economic ruin but they inherited these legacy systems, which they still use in 2022.  They had the 2nd largest army in Europe in 2021 with the second largest tank force.  Kharkov was historically a major tank producing site. 

 

Russia's military expenditure is currently no. 3 in the world.  And more significantly, everything is cheap in Russia.  I mean, really cheap.  They produce tanks that are 40 times cheaper than a German tank.  They also have plentiful access to raw materials and heavy industry.  A major concern is if they double the defense budget after this war and improve their capabilities.  This war would make them the most combat-experienced military in serious, large scale warfare in the world.  The US response would to harp on the Russian threat and increase military expenditures accordingly.

 

Overall the key lesson of this war is the importance of airpower, missiles, and artillery- in particular artillery has dominated this conflict.  Artillery is more economical compared to missiles/air force, and the Russians have benefited greatly from their access to Soviet stockpiles. The Tank has heavily underperformed, too many good anti-tank weapons these days.

 

Russian logistics is completely dependent on their access to railroads.  Without rail they aren't really going anywhere in mass.  This makes them a regional threat but not a global threat like the US.

 

This is probably the best NATO SP artillery piece.  However it costs 17 million Euro....

 

 

Russian 2S19 Msta, which they have over 1100 units.  These cost 1.6 million Euro, and less if purchased internally.

 

The Msta has performed well in Ukraine.  These guns are linked to drones, and onboard computers automatically rotate the vehicle and gun elevation from coordinates sent to it, real time.

Military Balance 2021 puts total European military expenditures at 40% of the USA.

 

Britain, France, and Germany have the highest.  Individual nations have very low numbers of troops, tanks and artillery compared to the Russia and Ukraine.  Basically Russia + the legacy Soviet arsenal is a monster in terms of value per dollar.  They can manufacture tanks and artillery at extremely low cost and buy 5-6 professional Russian soldiers for one US soldier.

 

Germany's military spending in financial terms is around the range of Russia but look at what they have.  Poland is a lower-income country and has considerably more :

 

Germany:

 

Army 62,150

 

ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES MBT 245: 225 Leopard 2A5/A6; 19 Leopard 2A7; 1 Leopard 2A7V (78 Leopard 2A4 in store

 

ARTILLERY 262 SP 155mm 121 PzH 2000 MRL 227mm 41 M270 MLRS MOR 100: 120mm 70 Tampella; SP 120mm 30 M113 with Tampella

 

 

Poland:

 

Army 58,500

 

ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES MBT 808:137 Leopard 2A4 (being upgraded to 2PL); 105 Leopard 2A5; 5 Leopard 2PL (in test); 232 PT-91 Twardy; 329 T-72A/T-72M1

 

ARTILLERY 719 SP 394: 122mm 227 2S1 Gvozdika; 152mm 111 M-77 Dana; 155mm 56 Krab MRL 122mm 179: 75 BM-21; 29 RM-70; 75 WR-40 Langusta MOR 146: 120mm 80: 15 2B11; 65 M120; SP 120mm 66 SMK120 RAK

 

 

In an Alternate history what-if, it would have required mainly the US to provide training, ammunition and equipment for the Ukrainian heavy artillery army.

 

House passes $839B defense bill, swatting down Biden’s military plans - POLITICO

 

The $839 billion National Defense Authorization Act, approved in a 329-101 vote, is $37 billion more than the administration sought in military spending.

 

 

 

The most significant days of the Russian artillery offensive July 6-16

On 7/5/2022 at 5:44 AM, Cult Icon said:

 

What kind of restriction/favors does the US ask france?  I know a major aspect is the use of similar ammunition 5.56 NATO and equipment, shared technologies and training/information.

 

There are no official restrictions. The similar ammo isn't much of a problem. The biggest problem is that the US Military–industrial complex is trying to crush its competitors within NATO.

 

The official reason to this is to "standardize gear", but, in fact, the suzerain state just wants its arms industry to be the monopoly. France is one of the exceptions with a (relatively) big arms industry, but it got f*** a few times by Uncle Sam, like here: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210921-how-france-was-blindsided-by-the-australia-us-sub-deal

 

Or here: https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/57441

 

On 7/5/2022 at 5:44 AM, Cult Icon said:

Putin was interested in getting Russia join to join NATO during the beginning of his presidency and the Clinton years.  He was also interested in improving relations between Russia and the west for years but the Crimea crisis turned him into Darth Vader.

 

Interesting. I always wondered why the US didn't ally with Russia to limit China's power.  I guess it's hard to stop seeing someone as the "bad guy" after years of a cold war.

The other problem of NATO is its leader's soft power. This was alright when it was symbolized by Arnold's movies, but nowadays the US soft power is their dopey cult (the Woke).

 

This is what the USA's symbolic clout looks like in 2022

 

Do you think a suzerain state can get respect when its members looks like this?

The "woke" U.S. military would obliterate the Russian invading force in one targeting cycle if they wanted to.

This is why I think the fascination with the "hyper-masculine" Russian military is so idiotic.

 

Also, I want all of the people who think the U.S. armed forces are sissified to have the courage to repeat that claim in a bar in say Fayetteville, Nashville, Austin, Columbus, ...

And see how well that goes for them.

3 hours ago, SympathysSilhouette said:

The "woke" U.S. military would obliterate the Russian invading force in one targeting cycle if they wanted to.

This is why I think the fascination with the "hyper-masculine" Russian military is so idiotic.

 

"Soft power" has nothing to do with the military, buddy....  It's the opposite: it's the ability to influence people without fighting. It's not coercion (which would be hard power), it's influential power, the ability to fascinate people.

 

Nobody's fascinated with hyper masculine Russian or whatever chimera you thought of (we weren't even talking about the Russians ). But also, nobody's fascinated with blue-haired obese people.

 

BTW, it wouldn't be a good idea for two nuclear powers to fight!!!  There's a high risk of sby blowing a fuse, so please keep these dreams for you

 

 

3 hours ago, SympathysSilhouette said:

Also, I want all of the people who think the U.S. armed forces are sissified to have the courage to repeat that claim in a bar in say Fayetteville, Nashville, Austin, Columbus, ...

 

So you're fascinated by force too... see you're probably more hyper-masculine than you know It's interesting to see how nature comes back when people resort to their natural feelings.

I don't think of myself as "woke".

I think the culture's current extreme obsession with how everything is supposedly too "woke" is idiotic.

On the other hand much of this crap is just reheated nonsense so I'm hardly surprised.

A tally of Russian MOD claims of degrading Ukrainian units in the Donbass 7/15- 7/19.  Like the previous post I focus on the claimed human losses and ignore material losses.  They claim up to 1200 Ukrainian casualties in this period.

 

It looks like the whole period of 7/5- 7/15 was one of the heaviest firestorms by the Russians of this war, with claimed Ukr human losses in the thousands. There were heavy air, missile, and artillery attacks on all fronts.  Afterwards, it seems have lessened a lot in intensity.  The Russians only executed a general offensive for two days, then they halted and started opening fire again.  

 

Quote

 

 

In the vicinity of the village of Dolyna of the Donetsk People's Republic, high-precision weapons struck at the combat positions of the battalion of the 81st Airmobile Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. More than 60 personnel were killed.

 

High-precision air-launched missiles in the village of Kostiantynivka of the Donetsk People's Republic hit the point of temporary deployment of mercenaries of the so-called Ukrainian "foreign legion". Up to 250 foreign fighters, seven armored vehicles, as well as 12 special vehicles were destroyed.

 

 As a result of high-precision strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces, the 115th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, operating in the Northern direction, was actually destroyed. Only in the last two days, the loss of personnel in this unit amounted to more than 600 people.

 

Pinpoint strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces on the places of deployment of the nationalist formation "Right Sector" in the city of Artemovsk of the Donetsk People's Republic destroyed about three hundred nationalists and up to 30 units of armored and special vehicles.
 

 

 

 

On 7/17/2022 at 12:57 PM, Enrico_sw said:

 

There are no official restrictions. The similar ammo isn't much of a problem. The biggest problem is that the US Military–industrial complex is trying to crush its competitors within NATO.

The official reason to this is to "standardize gear", but, in fact, the suzerain state just wants its arms industry to be the monopoly. France is one of the exceptions with a (relatively) big arms industry, but it got f*** a few times by Uncle Sam, like here: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210921-how-france-was-blindsided-by-the-australia-us-sub-deal

Or here: https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/57441

Interesting. I always wondered why the US didn't ally with Russia to limit China's power.  I guess it's hard to stop seeing someone as the "bad guy" after years of a cold war.

 

I see what you mean, as stuff like this can happen.  It appears to be happening to Poland right now. Poland is buying a lot of US gear now, particularly expensive US M1 Abrams tanks, HIMARs MLRS, PATRIOT AA, etc. while offloading the legacy Soviet gear (T-72 etc) to Ukraine.  This benefits US arms manufacturers but is not necessarily economical for Poland... with large scale warfare having more equipment is more important than small or zero tactical gains from equipment that costs several times more per unit. 

 

It seems like the Republicans consider China the #1 threat (economic and military) and the Democrats consider the Russians the #1 threat (military).  From following this war it appears that China is adopting a semi-neutral stance towards Russia.