Cult Icon Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 6/29th, the Russian MOD claims the following successes: 10th Mountain Assault Brigade destroyed with 30 survivors 115th Mechanised, 79th Air Assault and 25th Airborne brigade supply lines cut. It is evident on both sides that the Russians have almost completely sealed off the supply roads to Lysychansk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cult Icon Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 British MOD claims "33,000" Russian casualties (KIA, WIA, MIA) so far in the war 6/29. 4,010 Russian KIA confirmed by BBC RU plus minimum 2,800 KIA reported by DRP/LRP. Minimum 7,000 KIA. Given that DRP/LRP losses have been similar to Russian army ones and don't include May-June losses, I would give a min. figure of 8000 KIA. So the casualty range is 32,000-48,000 KIA/WIA/MIA. Russian MIA/POW is very low, perhaps around 400 after the recent prisoner exchanges. Surprisingly, the British military figure falls in this range. Prior to this they had completely unrealistic Russian death estimates, likely taken from Ukrainian propaganda. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enrico_sw Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 Quote ‘Toxic masculinity’: Putin wouldn’t have launched ‘macho’ war if he were a woman, says Boris Johnson https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-putin-woman-toxic-masculinity-b2111750.html The Anglo-Saxons are becoming dumb as fuck. BoJo should open an history book one day. And I'm not just talking about Thatcher. History books are full of women who launched wars. They just didn't fight in them, but that's very different. But, whatever... these people have been so dumbed down, it's not even possible to try to discuss these things with them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enrico_sw Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 France should've colonised England centuries ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cult Icon Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 7 hours ago, Enrico_sw said: The Anglo-Saxons are becoming dumb as fuck. BoJo should open an history book one day. Stupid thing to say, as if NATO had nothing to do with provoking Russia. This war is looking to becoming another US/NATO, incompetent disaster. I have noticed that the Ukrainian military is getting weaker and weaker vs Russia and less capable of defense. This weakening process is accelerating to the point where I believe that if it continues at its current rate, Ukraine's military will collapse in the fall of 2022 ( around October or November). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SympathysSilhouette Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 5 hours ago, Cult Icon said: Stupid thing to say, as if NATO had nothing to do with provoking Russia. This war is looking to becoming another US/NATO, incompetent disaster. I have noticed that the Ukrainian military is getting weaker and weaker vs Russia and less capable of defense. This weakening process is accelerating to the point where I believe that if it continues at its current rate, Ukraine's military will collapse in the fall of 2022 ( around October or November). Their strategic goals are to secure the Donbas by late August, then take a strategic pause, only to start a fall offensive to the the South up to Odessa. Probably starting that around mid October. Personally I don't believe they have enough left in terms of equipment and good troops to realize their ambitions in the South, but I might be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cult Icon Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 3 hours ago, SympathysSilhouette said: Their strategic goals are to secure the Donbas by late August, then take a strategic pause, only to start a fall offensive to the the South up to Odessa. Probably starting that around mid October. Personally I don't believe they have enough left in terms of equipment and good troops to realize their ambitions in the South, but I might be wrong. Russia won't run out of equipment or ammo as they have the largest stockpile of this in the world. At the same time, confirmed deaths have sharply dropped since March 2022: Russian casualties in Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated Basically, once the Ukrainian 'professional' army collapses due to high losses the bulk of the defense will be held up by very poorly led, trained and equipped reservists/conscripts with low casualty inflicting capability. Literally guys with AK small arms and mortars. I consider the Ukrainian ground force as having shot its bolt already, its best days are long gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cult Icon Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 So the Russians will be left fighting a gigantic army of local militia men, ages 60- teenagers, largely equipped with weapons ranging from hunting rifles to AK-74s, plus mortars and RPG/ATGM with small ammunition supplies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cult Icon Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 This war is really demonstrating the dominance of drone spotted- heavy artillery. It is the most useful and damaging combat arm and inflicts most of the damage in this war. The Russians use a drone company to provide observation and laser targeting for 2-3 batteries (12-18 guns of heavy artillery and MLRS) per combat battalion. They also provide their artillery units a limited supply of guided rounds, which can knock out laser-targeted objectives with 1-2 rounds. The strength of the Russians is they have access to the Soviet Unions' decades of stockpiled 152mm and 203mm rounds. These stockpiles are massive as they were accumulated for the third world war. But they have a downside as they are unguided, so a lot of ammunition is wasted, even with drones spotting for them. The guided artillery shell saves a lot of time and a lot of transportation space. However they have insanely high cost compared to a zero cost or low cost Soviet shell. The US uses Excaliber shells and the Russians use the Soviet Krasnopol shell. Both are so expensive as to be considered a 'special' ammunition. The side who figures out how to make them low cost (probably manufactured in China LOL) will have a big advantage and a massive tactical superiority. I can imagine that the "attrition" phase of an artillery offensive could be reduced to a low percentage of the time and only need low logistical capacity to move all the guided shells. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cult Icon Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 About 36 hrs ago the Russians took the Lysychansk Oil refinery. The Russians have over the past couple of hours nearly cut off the Lysychansk pocket. There is just one good road left for the trapped Ukrainian formations to escape. They will either get encircled or will try to break out, which would be a fiasco for them. Russian sources map. The Russian state media, TASS has told the Russian people that after the Ukrainian withdrawal from the Luhansk Oblast, they anticipate a Ukrainian retreat to the Sivesk defensive line. This will be the location of the next Russian offensive. : Given the Ukr leadership statements, I estimate that the Ukrainian military is losing between 600+ to a minimum of 100 killed a day. So that is approx. 3,600+ casualties to a minimum of 400 casualties. If the Ukrainians took 200 KIA a day for the first 130 days of the war, that is a maximum of 26,000+ dead. Total casualties are 156,000 (KIA, WIA, MIA) to a minimum of 104,000. If the Ukrainians took 300 KIA day for the first 130 days, it is a maximum of 39,000+ dead. Total casualties are 234,000 + to a minimum of 156,000. If the Ukrainians took 400 KIA a day for the first 130 days, it is a maximum of 52,000 + dead Total casualties are 312,000+ to a minimum of 208,000. -------------------- Having studied this war everyday I believe that the minimum Ukrainian death count is 200 killed a day for 130 days. So the minimum losses for the Ukrainian military is between 156,000-104,000 men, including 26,000 dead Ukrainian solders. The real loses are higher than this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cult Icon Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Encirclement completed. Russian troops captured the city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cult Icon Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Putin and the Shoigu declare victory and 'full liberation' of the Luhansk People's Republic. So the next, never ending cycle of "death traps" claimed by the Ukrainian military and their propaganda turned out to be a farce. Lysychansk was abandoned with scattered groups of Territorial militia and national guard left, plus abandoned equipment. Russian LRP Militiamen and Chechen National Guard quickly took the city. Rumors are that the break-out happened last Thursday and the defenders of Lysychansk retreated into the Sivesk defense line. The Russian MOD also talks about how they are trying to catch all these disparate groups- presumably they avoided the roads and have trekked away from the city in groups. This clip appeared in Russian media. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enrico_sw Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 On 6/30/2022 at 6:57 AM, Cult Icon said: Stupid thing to say, as if NATO had nothing to do with provoking Russia. This war is looking to becoming another US/NATO, incompetent disaster. I have noticed that the Ukrainian military is getting weaker and weaker vs Russia and less capable of defense. This weakening process is accelerating to the point where I believe that if it continues at its current rate, Ukraine's military will collapse in the fall of 2022 ( around October or November). I guess BoJo said that to look good in front of the media. Anglo-Saxon leaders sound like people in a cult. On 6/30/2022 at 6:57 AM, Cult Icon said: This war is looking to becoming another US/NATO, incompetent disaster. I have noticed that the Ukrainian military is getting weaker and weaker vs Russia and less capable of defense. This weakening process is accelerating to the point where I believe that if it continues at its current rate, Ukraine's military will collapse in the fall of 2022 ( around October or November). NATO has become a weird organisation. Its goal went from defending the West against the East to... well something much more vague. The nations within it feel the need to be protected and stay under uncle Sam's umbrella. But protected against what? Russia being a threat is relatively new for Western Europe (I guess Eastern European countries like Poland will say they saw it coming). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enrico_sw Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 How appealing is it be in the Western club, I wonder? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enrico_sw Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 This "gender BS" certainly does not make the US appealing. It's funny how easy it is to indoctrinate or dumb down people. This" gender fluidity" propaganda is making the Anglo-Saxons look weak-minded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cult Icon Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 A lot of developing news that the Seversk defense line is apparently under threat. Since the Ukrainians did not really fight the battle for the twin cities, the Russians have not made an operational pause and have enough juice are continuing the offensive. They also crossed the Siverskyi Donets river to the Northwest of Seversk and are moving against the rear of the defense line. Also there are Ukr troop movements leaving Seversk. And Russian gains to the south. the Seversk line may be untenable and the Ukr may retreat westward to the Bakhmut line. After Bakhmut, the twin cities of Sloyvansk-Kramatorsk are the final key cities in the Donbass, population base the same as Sevorendonesk-Lsyshansk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cult Icon Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 5 hours ago, Enrico_sw said: NATO has become a weird organisation. Its goal went from defending the West against the East to... well something much more vague. The nations within it feel the need to be protected and stay under uncle Sam's umbrella. But protected against what? Russia being a threat is relatively new for Western Europe (I guess Eastern European countries like Poland will say they saw it coming). In practice it allowed European countries to spend a very low % of GDP on defense (especially Germany) while being under the US influence with US bases scattered all throughout NATO countries. There is a trade impact too. The irony is that the low % GDP on defense means that NATO members don't have much to give to Ukraine, and they did not adequately prepare Ukraine against Russia. You remember that Putin/Russia tried to join NATO? Doesn't make much sense if you think about it. If Russia joined NATO there is little reason for NATO to exist LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SympathysSilhouette Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 I'm sure that Vlad has plentiful men to still throw into the meat grinder but it's pretty clear that in terms of equipment they are starting to feel the pain. They lack some of the materials for the missiles they were launching at the start of the war. We have seen T-62s in the field. If they had plentiful more recent tanks they wouldn't get sixty year old vehicles out of storage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cult Icon Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 4 hours ago, SympathysSilhouette said: I'm sure that Vlad has plentiful men to still throw into the meat grinder but it's pretty clear that in terms of equipment they are starting to feel the pain. They lack some of the materials for the missiles they were launching at the start of the war. We have seen T-62s in the field. If they had plentiful more recent tanks they wouldn't get sixty year old vehicles out of storage. Russia has something like over 10,000 T-72/T-80/T-90 in storage. I posted this data from the IISS research on this thread. Besides that the tank losses they have taken aren't even that significant among the ground forces. The 200 odd T-62 tanks equipped with modern sensors were sent to arm the DRP militias. The T-62 is still useful for assault gun actions. The Russian army also provided them with T-64. Both tank types are not used by the Russian army. The Russians have also maintained the same level of strategic missile and air support (300-200 sorties and 30-40 launches) everyday since the beginning of the war. This argument you posted is Ukrainian propaganda, not facts. The US/UK media has been overrun with an endless river of obvious Ukrainian misinformation about the war, and biased journalists/Western military 'experts' have lapped it up without questioning the source. The 'rotten Russian army' arguments about the Russians running out of men, missiles, equipment and 2 weeks from Russian military collapse since the 2nd week of the war has not happened. This shows that Western media is being misinformed and has fallen prey to wishful thinking. This is to the point where millions of people think that Ukraine is winning the war! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cult Icon Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 Russian MOD kill claim for recent fighting. So the upper limit of Ukrainian losses in the LPR were 5,469 casualties over the course of two weeks. Sanitary- 3,251 so this is the new claimed POW intake. That is a maximum of 455 ukrainian casualties a day for 12 days around the twin cities. Also 196 tanks/AFVs, 12 aircraft, 1 helicopter, 69 UAV, 6 AA, 97MLRS, 166 guns and mortars, 216 military vehicles- a good portion of this is likely abandoned due to their retreat. Within two weeks, groups in the "Gorsky Kotla", in the areas of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk were surrounded and liquidated. 25 settlements were taken under control, the largest of which are Severodonetsk, Zolote, Gorske, Volcheyarivka. The operation was completed yesterday with the liberation of one of the largest cities of the Lugansk People's Republic - Lysychansk. In total, 670 square kilometers of territory were taken under control during the active offensive actions. The total losses of the armed forces of Ukraine amounted to 5469 people, including irrevocable - 2218, sanitary - 3251; 196 tanks and other armored vehicles, 12 aircraft, one helicopter, 69 unmanned aerial vehicles, six long-range anti-aircraft missile systems, 97 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 166 field and mortar artillery pieces, 216 vehicles for various purposes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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