The "What Are You Thinking About Right Now?" PIP

[Cult Icon]

I finished studying every day of the Ukraine war- finally.  Day 1-58.

 

This is easily one of the most uncertain/interesting of all modern wars/campaigns due to its complexities and because the aggressor chose to attack with such small forces and conduct operations on a razor edge by not declaring war on their opponent and tying one hand behind his back. 

 

The Russians have a great superiority in artillery, armor, and airpower but their infantry is weaker than Ukraine, and massively outnumbered by several orders of magnitude.   This makes their assaults clumsy and slow, as the very small Russian infantry screen relies on firepower to shred the Ukrainian defenders, while they advance slowly to mop them up.  This results in a slow tactical advance and makes the execution of highly effective maneuver warfare a non-starter.

 

The Russians are currently steadily advancing everyday in the Donbass under a curtain of firepower but final success in the Donbass depends on whether or not they have enough infantrymen left at the end to push out the Ukrainian JFO.   A lot of their elite infantry units (Airborne, Naval, SOBR, etc.) that were massed West of Kyiv are still hidden in the rear, they could emerge at any time.  They are also making small local gains in the southern front, which is much more quiet than the Donbass.  However, there is a lot of evidence that the Russians are extremely pressed for infantrymen, trying to grab them from a variety of sources.

 

I estimate that it will take 1-2 months to clear the Donbass, if the Russians have enough front-line combatants left to do it.  If they run out before they clear the Donbass, Putin will have to declare war on Ukraine and this war may be fought into 2023.  This possibility looks to be factored in as the Russian state-controlled media is becoming more aggressive in promoting the need to declare war.

 

I think the losses on the Ukrainian regular army at this point are very severe, and as the war continues the massive and poorly equipped/trained Ukrainian territorial militas, equipped with a lot of NATO donated equipment will gradually take more and more of the combat burden.  The ability of the Ukrainian regular army to attack and take ground remains very low.  The abilities of the territorial militas are even worse, but if morale remains high they can still be very hard to destroy due to how massive they are compared to the Russian infantry.

 

Day 59:

 

On the Donbass, the Russians are in the final stage of winning the battles for Popasna and Rubizhne. Lyman and/or Yampil are likely the next towns to be attacked.  If the Russians pursue this goal than the Izyum salient can be see as a diversionary manuever, to draw many Ukrianian brigades towards it and soften up the decisive fighting to the East.

 

"Ukrainian officials suggested on April 23 that Russian forces near Rubizhne and Popasna may seek to encircle the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area rather than pursue the deeper envelopment."

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23

[Tania82]

5 hours ago, Cult Icon said:

The depp-heard trial looks mutually destructive.  Johnny Depp is taking some hits (making himself look like an unstable drug addict) while he tries to reverse his ex-wife's character assasination.

I didn t know they used drugs in their wedding. 

[Cult Icon]

15 hours ago, Tania82 said:

I didn t know they used drugs in their wedding. 

 

It seems like Depp has a very complicated social life, a lot of partying & drugs.  He even provided free living quarters for his wife's friends.

 

This trial is actually pretty entertaining

[Cult Icon]

 

[Cult Icon]

The  Russians appear to be racing against the clock, attacking with what they have rather than performing an operational pause.  Spring is here and as the days go by, more and more foilage will appear which will favor the defender.  

[Cult Icon]

 

[Tania82]

10 hours ago, Cult Icon said:

 

It seems like Depp has a very complicated social life, a lot of partying & drugs.  He even provided free living quarters for his wife's friends.

 

This trial is actually pretty entertaining

Yeah, not my style. Good actor, I hope he will be fine, but not my type.

[Cult Icon]

IMHO he is beyond a good actor, he was one of the best working A-list actors, top 5.  

[Matt!]

Today is the day! #ANDSTILL

 

[Matt!]

7 hours ago, Cult Icon said:

 

 

Lol. 

[Matt!]

On 4/23/2022 at 12:10 AM, Enrico_sw said:

 

 

I thought Sweden was peaceful?

 

What...Have you ever read about this little place called Malmö? 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malmö

[Cult Icon]

Amber heard looks nervous and miserable during the trial.  It makes her look cute to me, like I should be a white knight to come down and save her.  Or is she acting?

[Matt!]

Netflix Officially Adding Commercials

 

https://popculture.com/streaming/news/netflix-officially-adding-commercials/

 

[Matt!]

4 minutes ago, Cult Icon said:

Amber heard looks nervous and miserable during the trial.  It makes her look cute to me, like I should be a white knight to come down and save her.  Or is she acting?

 

Acting 100%.

[Cult Icon]

9 minutes ago, Matt! said:

 

Acting 100%.

 

I have no idea (haven't followed this drama at all until the trial).  I have noticed that Johnny depp has an army has fans and they flood youtube with their supportive comments.  Also, youtube content creaters are largely on his side too.

[Tania82]

40 minutes ago, Cult Icon said:

IMHO he is beyond a good actor, he was one of the best working A-list actors, top 5.  

He still being.

[Tania82]

28 minutes ago, Matt! said:

 

Acting 100%.

Sad situation. This is one case about mutual violence, not girl victim. I am feminist but I know not all women are victim

[Cult Icon]

Basically "Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas", wasn't acting 

 

 

[Cult Icon]

20 minutes ago, Tania82 said:

He still being.

 

what is your favorite film(s) staring him?

[elfstone]

FFS let Lukaku take that penalty!