Cult Icon Posted April 23, 2022 Share Posted April 23, 2022 I finished studying every day of the Ukraine war- finally. Day 1-58. This is easily one of the most uncertain/interesting of all modern wars/campaigns due to its complexities and because the aggressor chose to attack with such small forces and conduct operations on a razor edge by not declaring war on their opponent and tying one hand behind his back. The Russians have a great superiority in artillery, armor, and airpower but their infantry is weaker than Ukraine, and massively outnumbered by several orders of magnitude. This makes their assaults clumsy and slow, as the very small Russian infantry screen relies on firepower to shred the Ukrainian defenders, while they advance slowly to mop them up. This results in a slow tactical advance and makes the execution of highly effective maneuver warfare a non-starter. The Russians are currently steadily advancing everyday in the Donbass under a curtain of firepower but final success in the Donbass depends on whether or not they have enough infantrymen left at the end to push out the Ukrainian JFO. A lot of their elite infantry units (Airborne, Naval, SOBR, etc.) that were massed West of Kyiv are still hidden in the rear, they could emerge at any time. They are also making small local gains in the southern front, which is much more quiet than the Donbass. However, there is a lot of evidence that the Russians are extremely pressed for infantrymen, trying to grab them from a variety of sources. I estimate that it will take 1-2 months to clear the Donbass, if the Russians have enough front-line combatants left to do it. If they run out before they clear the Donbass, Putin will have to declare war on Ukraine and this war may be fought into 2023. This possibility looks to be factored in as the Russian state-controlled media is becoming more aggressive in promoting the need to declare war. I think the losses on the Ukrainian regular army at this point are very severe, and as the war continues the massive and poorly equipped/trained Ukrainian territorial militas, equipped with a lot of NATO donated equipment will gradually take more and more of the combat burden. The ability of the Ukrainian regular army to attack and take ground remains very low. The abilities of the territorial militas are even worse, but if morale remains high they can still be very hard to destroy due to how massive they are compared to the Russian infantry. Day 59: On the Donbass, the Russians are in the final stage of winning the battles for Popasna and Rubizhne. Lyman and/or Yampil are likely the next towns to be attacked. If the Russians pursue this goal than the Izyum salient can be see as a diversionary manuever, to draw many Ukrianian brigades towards it and soften up the decisive fighting to the East. "Ukrainian officials suggested on April 23 that Russian forces near Rubizhne and Popasna may seek to encircle the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area rather than pursue the deeper envelopment." https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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