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The "What Are You Thinking About Right Now?" PIP


Francesca

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Today's combat- Day 27:

 

Ukr has been making small counterattacks for various towns/villages against the Russian western pincer on the Kyiv axis, at the same time the Russians are advancing in the Donbas and the Ukr pocket in Mariupol is shrinking.  The Ukr position in the west is narrowing, a Russian pincer is coming in its north, Izyum has been contested for days.

 

Ukraine is talking to the US media about "encircling" the encirclers, we can expect more offensive activity from the Ukrainians west of Kyiv over the next few days.

 

The Ukr situation in the Donbas is deteriating everyday and at this rate the region will fall to the Russians.  The city of Mariupol will fall well before that.  I think once Putin has the Donbas and Mariupol there should be more room for Zelensky to make concessions and end the war.

 

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3 hours ago, Cult Icon said:

Today's combat- Day 27:

 

Ukr has been making small counterattacks for various towns/villages against the Russian western pincer on the Kyiv axis, at the same time the Russians are advancing in the Donbas and the Ukr pocket in Mariupol is shrinking.  The Ukr position in the west is narrowing, a Russian pincer is coming in its north, Izyum has been contested for days.

 

Ukraine is talking to the US media about "encircling" the encirclers, we can expect more offensive activity from the Ukrainians west of Kyiv over the next few days.

 

The Ukr situation in the Donbas is deteriating everyday and at this rate the region will fall to the Russians.  The city of Mariupol will fall well before that.  I think once Putin has the Donbas and Mariupol there should be more room for Zelensky to make concessions and end the war.

 

 

It's damn nice to see that the Ukrainians are finally pushing back. 

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a4lq9mrol3p81.jpg

 

A Russian meme from one of their media outlets- both sides claiming huge numbers lol. And of course, their enemies always lose a lot more than they do..

 

Ukraine is supposed to have 2200-800 tanks.

 

It makes it very hard to know what the real losses/current strengths approx. are for both sides.

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1 hour ago, Matt! said:

 

It's damn nice to see that the Ukrainians are finally pushing back. 

 

FOkVkR5WYAMaGiS?format=jpg&name=large

 

This is where they are counterattacking ^  At the base of the salient (Iprin area).  The thermo imagery (Red) means that there was intense fires there some time in the past 12 hrs.

 

military analyst's guess of what forces hold the salient.  Among these are the 31st Air Assault Brigade.  These paratroops must be exhausted, some have fought since day 1 of the war. :

 

FOkH8ntXwAAeygr?format=jpg&name=large

 

The mystery remains forthe Ukr - (since there is so little information) how many forces they actually have left for an operational reserve?  

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According to Russian sources they repelled a "two infantry battalion, one tank company" attack at Izyum yesterday with artillery and air support.

 

Over the past 12 hrs Ukr attacked Russian landing ships at Berdyansk (port city in the Donbas), heavily damaging one and damaging another.

 

Ukr claim to have retaken Moschun and Markiv.  The Ukr counterattacks are of two pincers.

 

1143 buildings in Kharkiv have been destroyed by Russian troops, 998 of them are residential buildings,

 

- claims Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov

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https://vk.com/video-123538639_456278505

 

Russian infantry getting interviewed by Press in newly taken Ukr resistance nest.  Graphic: There are dead bodies, including burnt out ones- of Ukr soldiers inside.

 

"Colonel-General Alexander Yuryevich Chaiko (commander of the Air Defense Forces), having arrived by Mi-8AMTSh helicopter in the vicinity of Kiev, awarded state awards to distinguished servicemen of the RF Armed Forces."

 

https://vk.com/video-123538639_456278464

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Russian defense ministry uploaded this video of a Russian sapper (combat engineer) unit minesweeping a Ukr position and the road.

 

There is a Ukr trench system w/ tank traps shown- fairly primitive by WW2/WW1 standards and probably only recently dug.

 

 

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-City council says that "300 people" died at Mariupol theater.  Russian media declares 70% of Mariupol in their hands, Putin & co. say that Russia will own it forever.  What is confirmed is that the defense in Mariupol is nearly cut in half, and it is likely that the split will happen soon.

 

Mariupol%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%FOqyvVbWQAI6G-2?format=jpg&name=4096x409

 

- The Battle for the Donbas is reaching its final stage. The Ukr JFO group of forces (a quarter of the Ukr regular forces, NATO trained) is partially enveloped, the pivot point is the city of Izyum which has been fought over for many days.  A strong Russian thrust from Izyum towards the cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk will cut into the lines of communication/supply lines of the JFO and force a withdrawal. Kyiv has so far not ordered a retreat and is stalling as long as possible.

 

FOqyiKEXsBc5F0G?format=jpg&name=4096x409

 

- Erdogan says Ukraine and Russia reached an understanding on four of the six topics of disagreement.

Somewhat agreed on: NATO; Partial disarmament; Collective security; Russian language; Remaining topics: Crimea and Donbas.

 

Obviously the Russians want both regions permanently, and the military situation will factor into its determination..

 

 

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33 minutes ago, SympathysSilhouette said:

I don't know how you will stop future incursions on Russia's pat if you gift them Donbas.

Any such a peace accord would already doom Moldova.

 

They wouldn't, they will have to prepare for the second Russo-Ukraine war.  

 

Most certainly if there is peace the Russians will have to reorganize their army away from counter-insurgency/short engagements and back to conventional warfare (pre 2008), the BTG organizational form is an obvious failure in conventional deployment in high-intensity offensive operations.  This would take a long time.

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Official announcement by Russia :

Russia says first phase of Ukraine operation mostly complete, focus now on Donbass

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-military/russia-says-first-phase-of-ukraine-operation-mostly-complete-focus-now-on-donbass-idUSL5N2VS459

 

3/25:

 

"1,351 servicemen have died, 3,825 have been injured - Russian Defense Ministry"

 

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/599764-russia-raises-its-estimate-to-1400-troops-lost-in-ukraine

 

Lol!  Ukr General staff says 15,000 dead Russians, the other side says 1351..

 

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If Russia-Ukriane are unable to make peace after the Donbas falls- the Russians' next move will mostly likely be in the Northern theater of operations, which is largely in strategic defensive right now and is in a messy/complicated situation.  This means that units and supply capacity will be shifted North instead of concentrated in the Southern/Eastern sectors right now.  So the Russians would go into the strategic defense in the Donbas/East and South.

 

Or they could reinforce the South and launch an offensive to cut off eastern Ukraine until they reach Kyiv.  The offensive from the South seems be better from a logistics perspective due to all the port capacity there.

 

 The recent Ukrainian counterattacks in the North (particuarly against the NW Kyiv salient) gives an indication that they see the Donbas situation deteriating and not worth salvaging.  Eventually they will give JFO the order to withdraw to new defensive lines to the West.  There are also significant Ukr counterattacks in the South, trying to stop the Russians from taking the two cities of Mykolayv/Kryvi Rog (spelling).

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