Easter got co-opted!

 

On 3/29/2024 at 7:27 PM, Enrico_sw said:

 

This is true. A couple of years ago, I thought that environmental issues would unite people, it turns out it divides them now.

 

Maybe it's alright that people are divided, as long as something productive eventually come up. It's not exactly the case right now.

 

For a long time, I considered that American economists had invented some of the greatest concepts. Antitrust laws are particularly genius IMO, but they aren't really applied anymore. Big corporations (especially big tech) are too powerful, but I don't see this as a sustainable situation.

 

Environmentalism and WOKE, and other politics of decadence & degeneration will be worth less than a slim dime if the western economies are broke, USA declining all across the board, and 99% of the population has a lower standard of living than before. 

 

Environmentalism is also irrelevant as China and other rising powers are likely lying about their footprint.  China produces more steel and many other manufactured goods than the rest of the world combined.  They've built more infrastructure in their country and the rest of the world than any other country.  Environmentalist politics only makes sense to clean up things in cities and local areas, but discussion of global footprint is pretty much fruitless.

 

The European interest in Environmentalism and their overall decadent mindset appears to be the product of being US penetrated vassal states living in the protected warm glow of a 'big daddy' that they until now thought was militarily invincible and could protect them from external threats. 

 

With the failure of NATO in Ukraine, it is evident that the European nations will have to painfully re-militarize and change themselves to the independent states they once were but they've only taken baby steps in this direction.  How much so remains to be seen.

 

American economics are a product of American hegemony, which is slipping by the day and something that requires replacement will new and updated ideas.  Our thinking needs to change, the worldview and mental prison of the 1990s needs to end. The next dollar crash is coming in the next decade and the next two recessions will likely really damage the US due to its worsening structural problems.

 

The War in Ukraine and the massive geopolitical shifts that are being revealed right now (including the first stage of de-dollarization of the world economy) shows that we in the West are trapped in an informational bubble, consumed by our own arrogance, and are complete morons regarding the true state of reality.

 

 

The newly proposed "100 billion dollar" Ukraine war fund by NATO appears to be an attempt to make funding the war "Trump-proof".

 

 

x

On 3/30/2024 at 5:32 PM, Stromboli1 said:

 

Yep, GG2 is upon us! Gamers are the one group that doesn't play around. Too bad a lot of the development studios have been infiltrated/infected with the woke mind virus.

 

Yes

 

Gamers have the antibodies against the woke virus. They won't let the industry be taken over by the woke nutjobs.

 

^ he's right

 

 

The Russian army has gained a foothold over the fortified city of Chasiv Yar.  It appears that the game plan is to encircle it from the North & South, and squeeze the Ukrainians out.  The city is protected by a waterway that has to be crossed from the North- the South has already been crossed. The Adiivka salient is also slowly expanding almost everyday.  Russian army also raised a new command center- the Northern group of forces in the Northern front.

 

Overall the Ukrainian army and state right now is pretty heavily weakened in morale and combat capability.  Some from their side claim that the average Ukrainian unit has only 25% combat strength which is why their government is trying to recruit 500,000 conscripts.  Average age of Ukrainian soldier is 43-44 years old according to their government.  

 

 In 2022-2023 it was at least capable of routine local counter-attacks but now it just a static defense force.  Even with this continual low-level Russian positional fighting of mostly squad & platoon attacks it is losing small tracks of ground everyday.  The Russians are preserving the combat strength of their reservists and are constantly trying to avoid the dreaded 2nd round of mobilization so they can do this for a very long time. 

 

With this low level pressure all across the front, the Russians intend to grind the Ukrainian army until they start cracking on their own.  It is slow but the growing Ukrainian weakness can be detected every month.

 

The next round of emergency funding (60 billion $) for Ukraine may be passed with growing Republican opposition.  A good portion of this funding is actually aimed not at helping Ukraine but replenishing exhausted US ammunition stocks.  Most of the media coverage coming from Ukraine is desperate in 2024, mainly screeching about inadequate funding and supplies.  Ukraine-NATO claims that the Russians have a "10-5 to 1" artillery ammo advantage but this could be lies aimed at supporting funding goals.

 

 

Quote

The US House of Representatives filed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 17 that would provide roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine, and will reportedly vote on the measure on April 20.[36] The supplemental appropriations bill largely resembles a previous supplemental bill passed by the US Senate and would offer Ukraine $48.3 billion in security assistance: $23.2 billion for replenishing weapons and equipment from the US Department of Defense (DoD) inventory; $13.8 billion for the purchase of weapons and munitions for Ukraine from US manufacturers; and $11.3 billion for continued US support to Ukraine through ongoing US military operations in the region.[37] The overwhelming majority of the proposed assistance for Ukraine, if passed, would go to American companies and US and allied militaries.[38]"

 

Pretty pathetic and very corrupt- as only 13.8 Billlion of the 60 Billion is for equipment and ammunition for Ukraine. 

 

The US 155mm artillery shell has so much price inflation that last time I checked it was an absurd $8,000 a round.  

 

$11.3 Billion for continued US support- probably ISR & logistics.

 

Ukraine is rated CC,  heading to default on its debt even with all the aid.

 

Among the aid package is more ATACMS, kind of a replacement for the now expended Ukrainian Soviet Tochka-U.

 

These missiles are no longer in production and the production order for them was removed from the bill.

 

 

There's also been a big escalation in anti-China rhetoric, sanctions, and politics- they are now being accused of being behind Russian economic growth and the war machine due to how they replaced European trade with China and the rest of the world.

 

 

The Russians achieved a penetration in the Adivvka front as a segment of the frontline collapsed, the salient is likely to expand significantly if Ukraine fails to successfully counterattack the penetration.  There is also a slow grind in the cities south of Adivvka forward.

 

They are also serious in the Chasiv Yar direction- lots of airstrikes in the city daily.  Overall both sides agree that the Russian air force uses about 200 guided bombs daily to strike ground targets throughout Ukraine, mostly of the 500KG class with some use of 1500KG guided bombs.  The Russians also re-started production of the 3000 KG class bombs.

 

Another major development is how Russia started production of the Soviet T-80 BVM including a new factory line that produces 1500 HP engines for the Tank.  The new Soviet T-80 BVM has an anti-drone cage on top of it.  However it is unlikely to be a game-changer if it does not have an effective system to jam drones. It would just save Russian field repair shops the trouble of installing improvised protection.

 

Among the 4 great tank production complexes of the Soviet Union, 1 is fully operational and the second is steadily activating more and more.

 

Given the lack of new production the most ATACMS the US will send to Ukraine is in the couple hundreds- as they are quiet about the real numbers it could be as low as in the dozens.  

 

Polish/Ukrainian forces claim that the new Russian "Army Group North" in reserve north of Sumy-Kharkiv is 100,000-50,000 men and are composed of trained attack forces with new equipment.  They recently de-mined the approaches to Kharkiv.  There is some kind of agitation going on from the Russians as they blew up a TV tower in Kharkiv, destroyed a power plant and did missile/drone strikes on the energy & communications system.  They appear to be trying to reduce the population of Kharkiv, getting them to evacuate.

 

If these manpower claims are true this force is around the same manpower size as the original force that invaded from the North in 2022.

 

The Russians set up an open-air military museum composed of captured NATO equipment in Moscow, it has nearly everything except the the captured British Challenger tanks 

 

Deputy Head of Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine Skibitsky did an interview for the UK Economist where he claimed:

 

1. Ukraine is incapable of winning

2. They expect to negotiate an ending to the war by the earliest in 2025.  What Russia is doing now is creating the military conditions for a negotiated peace on their terms.

3. Chasiv Yar is going to fall.

4.  Russians are preparing for an offensive in the Kharkiv & Sumy directions; currently they have 35,000 men but will increase it to 70,000-50,000 (late May- early June).  They do not believe that it is an ambitious offensive but aimed at spreading the Ukrainian army thin by drawing forces to the sector. ( Basically this is just like the original Russian redeployment in 2022 again.)

4. 

 

 

This TED talk is starting to go viral

 

5/10: there are a lot of claims of Russian ground recon- north of Kharkiv- the first since 2022 with infiltration against 4 border towns.

 

For the past few months the Ukrainians have been making noise and preparing for a ground assault in the Kharkiv axis.

 

If the Russians re-activate this front in a serious manner like in 2022 they could potentially draw off so many Ukrainian units that the entire Donbass will soften up.

 

They claim:

 

Russian Army Group North:

 

50,000 men with 400 tanks + 930 AFV + 1100 Artillery/MLRS systems + 6 Self-propelled Iskander Missile launchers

 

with 51+ infantry battalions (approx. 26,000 infantry)

 

If these claims are real this force is sufficient to re-envelop Kharkiv but not take it, reestablishing the situation in 2022 with a theater that actively pinned down a lot of Ukrainian units.

 

 

1.  Russian forces continue to advance north and northeast of Kharkiv with the support of air, missile, & drone strikes.  These towns appear to be poorly defended.  The Ukrainians claim that these Russian recon and infantry troops are a regiment sized group of approx. 2,000 men out of 35,000 men.  There is a potential of eventually committing 70,000 men of Army Group North to the offensive.

 

2. Pentagon & Western sources claim that the Russian operation is small scale and local affair meant to expand the zone of control but not invade the city of Kharkiv proper.

 

3. The biggest news is the firing of longtime Russian minister of defense Shoigu after some corruption issues with his staff.  Shoigu has been moved to the Security Council.  Instead, Putin hired the experienced economist Belousov to become Minister of Defense.  The claim here is that the War economy is at 6.6% of GDP and needs to be lowered and rationalized, while increasing production.  

 

So this is quite interesting as circa 2023 the Russians talked about a target of "10%" of GDP for defense and now 6.6% is considered too high for their strategic goals.

 

5/15 the Russian advance has slowed as Ukrainian infantry battalions from their reserves and the Donbass have saturated the area.  

 

2. The town of Lipsty, north of Kharkiv is now being contested and is likely to fall.  The city of Vovchansk looks to be a focal point as it is being contested.  The Ukrainians claim that there are 4 Russian infantry battalions attacking with tanks in support.  If the battle for this city takes a long time, it will be turned into ruins.

 

3. Ukraine seems to maintain that the attack is 'limited in scope' & 'for a buffer zone' but do not provide evidence that it will be.  Overall it appears that the Russians only committed a few thousand troops or so of 31,000 in total for this direction.

 

4. They are now approx. 4 KM away from the first line of Ukrainian defense.  The front line towns were easily taken, using infiltration tactics of individual infantry squads scattered across the front like the German Ardennes Offensive of 1944.  Given the ease of taking this towns it appears that the Russians have been planning & training for this operation for a long time.  The units that executed the attack are largely reservist-staffed infantry formations.

 

5. A possibility is that the Russians will expand the zone of control, just in front of the first line of Ukrainian trench systems and forts in their western effort.  Their eastern effort could move slowly towards outflanking the Kupiansk  front.

 

6. Putin announced that the 'new direction' is to increase military spending to 8.7% by the end of 2024, while maintaining social spending at the same level.  Meanwhile the new economist-Minister of Defense will be tasked to increase efficiency of the defense expenditures. 

 

They also refuse to do a 2nd round of partial mobilization, intending to fight the war with an expeditionary force rather than a large army.  

 

7.  Putin then brought his new 'Albert Speer' to meet Emperor Xi Jinping.

Biden said 'there is no genocide in Gaza'.  He should have rephrased it as 'collateral damage'.   This country is led by corrupt morons lol.

 

Biden: What’s happening in Gaza ‘is not genocide’ - POLITICO

"denouncing the International Criminal Court’s assertion that Israel’s leaders are guilty of war crimes for their campaign in Gaza."

"UK defence minister says China working to supply lethal aid to Russia"

 

UK defence minister says China working to supply lethal aid to Russia | Reuters

 

If this is true, the funny thing is what if China becomes the 'Arsenal of non-Western states' so to speak as relations of the world continue to decline vs. the West.  

 

A few months ago I saw how they were showing off their new factories that could produce so many missiles that they easily dwarf Russia & NATO combined.