Demonstration of heavy self-propelled rocket launcher with its forward observing drones

 

 

Thermobarbaric rocket launcher in action:

 

 

“The situation is very difficult. We’re losing 60-100 soldiers per day as killed in action and something around 500 people as wounded in action. So we are holding our defensive perimeters. The most difficult situation is in the east of Ukraine and southern Donetsk and Luhansk,” Zelensky told.

 

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3497061-president-zelensky-60100-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-per-day-and-around-500-wounded.html

 

I can't attest to the accuracy of these claims. He may be undercounting or overcounting for their agenda.

Summary of April- May 2022 combat.

It's pretty clear that both sides are currently losing a lot of men. Russia is paying a large cost for their recent gains. And Ukraine keeps on having to send new people into the meatgrinder.

The problem for Ukraine is that so far Putin doesn't seem at all worried about his losses.

1 hour ago, SympathysSilhouette said:

It's pretty clear that both sides are currently losing a lot of men. Russia is paying a large cost for their recent gains. And Ukraine keeps on having to send new people into the meatgrinder.

The problem for Ukraine is that so far Putin doesn't seem at all worried about his losses.

 

I think the huge "Russian deaths" stuff is Ukrainian propaganda that Western media outlets confused for facts.  However I think the Russians have lost a lot of vehicles and more so than Ukraine. But Russia can easily replace everything they lost for a very long time.  Their material losses are only a small percentage of what they have.  But they cannot replace the manpower losses in their professional army, which is their biggest vulnerability.

 

All things considered, Ukraine's personnel losses are probably several times that of Russia.  Their military is lower quality than Russia.  The Russian material superiority in every major category is balanced by Ukraine's vast infantry superiority and Ukraine's strong towed artillery forces.  This makes the war so fascinating as the two sides balance each other out and it turns into a sports game.

 

The Russian side's personnel losses are actually mostly not their army.  It is mainly in the DRP/LRP militiamen that you see me posting a lot.  Basically the Russian combat doctrine is to use "proxy" forces as infantrymen (who take the lion's share of the losses).  So they heavily use some XX,XXX Chechen/National Guard, PMC (like Wagner group),  and collect DRP/LRP pro-Russia volunteers/conscripts.  Currently the DRP/LRP's losses have exceeded that of the Russian military.  

 

In combat ops it is evident that the Russia constantly deploys these people in urban combat!

 

According to the Ukrainian biased Oryx blog (open sources and submissions) he believes that the Russians have lost over 4000 vehicles of all types in the Ukraine.  However I suspect that he is an agent of Ukrainian psychological operations units since he started getting viral on twitter/social media from the first days of the war. Nobody has access to so much information if these operations weren't premediated and coordinated. 

 

6/1/2022 map of Ukrainian troop dispositions (the Austrian Colonel posted above also uses it in his lecture), plotting from official Ukrainian military sources:

 

https://militaryland.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/day_98_Siverskyi-Donets_3.png

 

-Ukraine in April - May 2022 reinforced the Donbass with 7 Territorial brigades. (Ukrainian volksgrenadiers- these are 2nd rate units with a low standard of training and inferior equipment compared professional Ukrainian military formations, intended only for defense)

These are the 101, 102, 103, 105, 106, 107, and 125 Territorial defense brigades.

-Encircled Ukrainian forces (6/1/2022) are:

4th Sec Brigade
17th Tank Brigade
27th Sec Brigade
58th Motorized Infantry Brigade
111th Territorial Defense Brigade
118th Territorial Defense Brigade
National Battalion "Donbass"
15th Sec Regiment

 

OF these, the twin cities are defended by:

 

4th Sec Brigade
27th Sec Brigade
111th Territorial Defense Brigade

on the flanks: 17th Tank Brigade, 15th Sec Regiment.

 

These are 2nd and 3rd tier units (Ukrainian volkstrum/volksgrenadier- units with low training and overaged people) with the 1st tier forces being tied up elsewhere in the Donbass.  This means that the Russian generalship was successful at weakening the Sieverodonesk-Lynschansk area,  leaving the twin cities (200,000 pop. base) open.  The Russians currently have pushed the Ukrainian defenders to the final 25% of the Sieverodonesk, which is the industrial quarter.  They are attempting to encircle both cities right now.  Ukraine may or may not choose to fight this urban battle.  IF they do not, they will retreat to the west and the next big urban battles will be in the Donetsk Oblast.  This would also mean that they give up on the Luhansk area.

 

 

According to the research by Military Balance 2021 (IISS), Ukraine's artillery forces, the core of their defensive power had:

 

ARTILLERY 1,818 (of these SP 607+. MRL 354. TOWED 515+. MOR 120mm 340)

 

 (4,260 in store: 122mm 2,000
2S1 Gvozdika; 152mm 2,000: 1,000 2S3 Akatsiya; 850 2S5
Giatsint-S; 150 2S19 Msta-S; 203mm 260 2S7 Pion)

 

Their first tier, professional army, navy, and airborne forces were 155,000 men in total.  2nd tier forces consisted of 102,000 paramilitary and 60,000 National Guard.  To top this off they had 900,000 reservists in 2021.

 

-----------

 

Let's say Zelensky claims are correct (600 casualties a day).  600 x 60 is 36,000 casualties in April-May 2022 for the "second phase of the special military operation".  So the Russians are capable of inflicting 18,000 casualties a month on the Ukrainians.  Confirmed Russian deaths (over 2,622) by the BBC RU show that Russia deaths have dramatically declined in April-May.  Their death rate was the highest in March 2022.

 

Let's say the Ukrainians also lost 600 men a day in the "first phase".  The real losses are probably much higher than this.  600 x 100 days of combat is 60,000 casualties for Ukraine.  The overwhelming majority of these losses fall on their pre-war army, a force of some 317,000 men. 

 

Besides this they have 900,000 reservists that they are converting into replacements for frontline units or cadres for new territorial/security formation.  Plus countless more untrained and overaged/unfit conscripts from their male population.

 

The Ukrainians are very weak in all categories except for artillery and manpower. If IISS figures are accurate (combined with US/NATO deliveries) we are looking at some 6,300 heavy artillery pieces.

 

As of 6/3 the Russian ministry of defense claims this "In total, 186 Ukrainian aircraft and 129 helicopters, 1,087 unmanned aerial vehicles, 328 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,386 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 462 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,760 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,376 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation." 

 

Combined with this are a few factors concerning the core of Russian combat power: 1. very consistent air and missile support (from Pentagon briefings) of 300-200 air force sorties a day plus 35 strategic missile launches per day for 100 days.  2. increasing Russian firepower of all types on the ground as they improve their logistics. 3. The combined wear and tear of strategic Russian interdiction operations over Ukraine's logistics and ability to supply their military over the course of 100 plus days.

 

The most optimistic and exaggerated Russian claim consider 1/3 of Ukraine's artillery force to be destroyed.  Based on this claim, they would destroy Ukraine's artillery forces to the last weapon in 200 more days.

 

Minimum 60,000 Ukrainian casualties would leave around 250,000 men left from their pre-war army plus 900,000 reservists.  Besides that the untrained and/or unfit/overaged conscripts would be only fit for territorial defense or security units.  

 

The core of Ukraine's army is their pre-war cadre.  Perhaps 80% of them still remain after 100 days of combat.  After 200 more days (and provided the same assumptions) there should be much more than 40% of them left, which is still enough to provide cadres and leadership for formations.  However by that time their artillery situation should be catastrophic and their casualty inflicting power very low and only a low percentage of what it once was.

To sum things up, the war is highly unlikely to be a peer conflict after 200 days provided that Russia still has the political will to continue the war.  The key is the destruction of Ukraine's artillery forces, which is provided the vast majority of their combat power.  Even if the Russians do not advance and just sit there and shoot them up with their firepower superiority it is likely that they will cripple the Ukrainian artillery force to a very low percentage of capability after 200 more days.  The Ukrainian manpower superiority remains their most durable arm, but beyond the pre-war cadre and active reservists,  the rest will have a very low level of training.

 

So in history books the Ukraine war would be dated 2022 or 2022-2023.

Ukraine has decided to fight the battle of Severodonetsk-Lysychansk (pop base 200,000).  They sent a female MP into the city as a "political commissar".  They began counterattacks yesterday from the industrial district, which they still hold.  All bridges to Severodonetsk are destroyed except one.  

 

+ 5/26/22 Pentagon press briefing claims that there were 110 Russian BTG in the Ukraine. There were around 124 BTG (IIRC) at their highest point. Ukrainian General Staff claims that many of these BTG are degraded and merged together.

+Updated BBC RU count- 3,211 Russian dead corroborated by publicly available data as of June 3

 

https://zona.media/translate/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

 

DPR official casualty report 26 February – 2 June 2022: 1,986 killed, 8,199 wounded

LPR (no update yet aside from 600-500 KIA reported by Russians around April 4th).

 

https://ombudsman-dnr.ru/obzor-soczialno-gumanitarnoj-situaczii-slozhivshejsya-na-territorii-doneczkoj-narodnoj-respubliki-vsledstvie-voennyh-dejstvij-v-period-s-28-maya-po-03-iyunya-2022-g/

 

Of the June 3rd (3,211) BBC RU death count,

657 VDV, 154 Marines, 118 National Guard (eg. Chechen forces), 91 Spetznaz
24 warplane pilots and 10 helicopter pilots
Regular forces: 632 Riflemen, 217 tankers, 93 artillerymen

 

June 3rd:

 

Given the data movements so far, my estimate of minimum Russian casualties are :

 

Approx.  30,500 plus casualties in total (including 6,100 dead).

 

Minimum Ukrainian causalties: 70,000 plus (KIA, WIA, MIA)

 

However the Ukrainians have inexhaustible human resources in the short term, while the Russian is limited.

 

More footage of Thermobarbaric MLRS for destroying infantry in trenches and buildings.

This is the 34-year old MP "political commissar"

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryana_Bezuhla

 

Severondonesk under artillery fire.

 

Russian Mi-35 helicopter and SAM systems.

The daily losses admitted by the Ukrainian leadership just doubled. 

 

So their minimum daily losses are approx. 1,200-500 KIA/MIA/WIA

 

Minimum monthly losses are 36,000-15,000 plus.

 

obviously they say this because they want more aid and weapons.
So when will their claimed losses double again??

 

100 to 200 Ukrainian troops die every day in war - President's Office - BBC News Ukraine

Drones used as forward observers for artillery

 

The SP 152mm gun, possibly with Krasnopol guided shells

 

Krasnopol (weapon system) - Wikipedia

 

 

military adviser "Arestovych estimated to Feygyn that the daily numbers for Ukrainian casualties were more like “200 to 300 die, no less,” but that the figures fluctuate."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/11/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news-live-updates/#link-OZ7NMZ6OKNBQBNFIO4QEO7C5SQ

another increase lol. minimum 1800-1000 Ukrainian casualties a day.  minimum 54,000-30,000 per month.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksiy_Arestovych