6/25
1. The Battle for Vovchansk is becoming increasingly obvious- it is another meatgrinder operation set up by the Russians. Open sources reveal that both sides have up to 25,000 infantry and recon troops in the Kharkiv direction, basically numerical parity. Total troop presence is up to 50,000 on both sides, so the battle involves 100,000 men combined.
Ukraine has moved lots of strategic reserve units, the same units that were defeated in the 2023 counteroffensive to the area. More than half of the units Ukraine has brough up are their designated attack units, and 3 more are in reserve near Kharkiv city. They have been refitted, partially or in whole and probably half-trained. The Russians started using 3000 KG glide bombs on them and the region is interdicted by drone, missile, air, and artillery strikes.
If the Russians are successful, which is likely so far, the Ukrainian ability to defend the Donbass will be degraded and the rate of Russian advance will increase. However this Vovchansk battle will probably last a long time. It will take at least weeks and at most months.
2. The Russians took a village and a portion of the Toresk fortified zone and continue very slow but almost daily advances in the Adiivka front. They also make marginal but frequent advances in the Chasiv Yar direction. It is also apparent that they intend to reach the communications hub Povorsk and cut off the supply road feeding the Toresk- Niu York defense lines and tighten the encirclement of the area. Marginal positional creep continues everyday on the other fronts.
3. The longer run objective appears to isolate Toresk- Niu York fortified zone with twin pincers in the Adiivka & Chasiv Yar fronts, and then eventually squeeze them out, clearing the area. This will take them at least the rest of this year at the current rate. However if the Ukrainian strategic reserve is crippled in the Kharkiv' direction, the Donbass defenses will soften.