Immersive film about the Donbass war.  

 

 

Washington Post:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Danylyuk

"Russia is firing as many as 50,000 artillery rounds a day into Ukrainian positions, and the Ukrainians can only hit back with around 5,000 to 6,000 rounds a day, he said. The United States has committed to deliver 220,000 rounds of ammunition — enough to match Russian firepower for around four days."

"“But when you look at what’s happening, I’d be shocked if the Russians are sustaining casualties anywhere close to what the Ukrainians are right now,” Alperovitch said."

Ukraine is running out of ammunition as prospects dim on the battlefield (msn.com)

Besides the lower BBC RU Russian death figures, reported DPR casualties also show that April-May had much lower losses. I wouldn't be surprised if Ukrainian losses were, not only far in excess but several times that of the Russian.

Ukraine's military situation has been steadily worsening for the past 4 weeks.  The defenders of Severodonetsk are cut off and are pretty much finished. Lysychansk, the other half- is left.  The Ukrainians are retreating more from positions, which are then taken by the Russians.  I have noticed an increase in their territorial loss rate.  If the Russians continue to wear down Ukrainian forces at a rapid rate, eventually their brigades will crack more routinely and there will be more Russian breakthroughs and rapid Ukr retreats.

 

At the same time the Ukrainian political leadership have changed course, emphasizing that they are poorly armed/run out of artillery ammo, have high losses, and need Western aid.  If that claim by their advisor is correct that means that Ukraine has been reduced to a light infantry army with low combat power. Ukrainian artillery is their most powerful weapon.  Artillery/mortars/airpower has traditionally inflicted 80 percent of casualties in warfare.   Without artillery there is only an endless stream of light infantry/cannon fodder.

 

  I think the numbers that they admit to right now are likely the lowest death number they will admit to.  The real number is much higher.

 

So much of the Ukraine war effort relies on propaganda and the idea that Ukraine has inexhaustible human resources (to convert to light infantry) and the Russian army will run out "juice" somehow in their attempt to advance through the swarm.

Lol another increase.  

 

Davyd Arakhamia - Wikipedia

 

 Arakhamia is leading a Ukrainian delegation in Washington this week to lobby the Biden administration and Congress to increase the pace of weapons shipments and to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism — a topic he said they plan to raise with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

 

The daily Ukrainian military dead is now claimed to be 500-200 KIA per day in the Donbass.

 

Ukraine suffering up to 1,000 casualties per day in Donbas, (axios.com)

 

"Ukraine has recruited one million people into the army and has the capacity to recruit two million more, Arakhamia said, so it has the numbers to continue the fight in Donbas, where Russia has been gradually gaining territory."

 

These figure are beyond Ukraine's 900,000 man reservist pool.  This is basically a huge cannon fodder army with very low training and equipment.

Military Balance 2021 (IISS) Ukraine (317,000) then plus XXX,XXX since the war started:
Army 145,000
Naval Infantry ε2,000
Airborne Assault Troops ε8,000
Paramilitary 102,000
National Guard ε60,000

 

A sample of Russian MOD Ukr casualty claims credited to air force, strategic rocket services and artillery troops, (incomplete).  They are interestingly consistent with the recent Ukrainian death claims:

6/17: 550 

6/16: 480

6:15  300
6/14: 350
6/13: 120
6/12: 470
6/11: 470
6/10: 500
6/9: 500
6/8: 480
6/7: 570
6/6: 450
6/5: 350
6/4: 400
6/3: 360

 

To summarize, the Russian MOD typically gives 1-2 figures on human losses, one for airpower and the other for strategic rocket services and artillery. They usually have the airpower claim but are frequently missing the missiles/artillery one. So their claim for airpower is generally 350-150. The missiles/artillery claim, when included, is usually larger than the airpower claim. 400-200.

 

The Russian MOD claimed sorties/rocket launches are consistent with US Pentagon claims of 300-200 Russian aircraft sorties a day and an average of 40-35 rocket launches.

Telegram: Contact @mod_russia

 

Recently the Russians "made an example" of western volunteers by sentencing 3 POW to death.   2 Americans have also been captured.  This coincides with the significant number of foreign volunteers fighting in the Donbass right now.  

 

Russian claims:

 

" So, among European countries, the undisputed leader in the number of both arrived and dead mercenaries is Poland. Since the beginning of the special military operation, 1831 people have arrived in Ukraine, of which 378 have already been destroyed and 272 mercenaries have left for their homeland. It is followed by Romania - 504 arrivals, 102 dead, 98 left. In third place is the UK: 422 arrivals, 101 dead, 95 departures. From the American continent, Canada is in the lead: 601 arrivals, 162 destroyed, 169 left. In second place is the United States: 530 arrived, 214 died, 227 left."

 

Ukraine to U.S.Defense Industry: We Need Long-Range, Precision Weapons (nationaldefensemagazine.org)

 

Kiev reveals its weapons losses - The Press United | International News Analysis, Viewpoint

 

"We lost about 50%. This is about 1300 infantry fighting vehicles, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems,"

 

So the Russian MOD claims aren't far off the mark for armored vehicles.

The Wokington post is full of sissies

 

 

 

If things continue, Ukraine is screwed.  They are saying that they are running out of Soviet/Russian style artillery ammunition like 152mm.   US 155mm guns have high losses.  All Russia needs to do is to continue attacking Ukrainian logistics (destroy ammo dumps, etc.) and eliminate the remaining 700- odd artillery pieces.  The Ukrainian military is reduced to a rump force.   If the artillery is neutralized, I think there will be way more mass surrenders of Ukrainian units. 

 

Then the Russians can start advancing like they did in the first 3 weeks of the war.  They would take Odessa Oblast, landlock Ukraine.  Then if that's not enough, they will continue advancing into the interior.

Russian mobile strategic missile launcher.

 

The thing looks like a transformer..

 

 

 

 57th Mechanized Infantry Brigade and 30th Mechanized Brigade got routed recently.   The Russians reported that they closed the pocket trapping an estimated 2,000 Ukrainian troops. 

 

 

Ukraine retreats from Severodonesk

 

Severodonetsk: Ukraine orders forces to withdraw from key eastern city - BBC News

 

At this rate they will likely retreat from Lsychansk as well as the other city is going to get cut off.  And just exit the Luhansk oblast completely.

 

Trapped Ukrainian formations. estimated by the Russian MOD to be 2000 people, 40 AFV, 80 artillery guns and mortars:

 

3rd Mechanized Battalion of 24th Mechanized Brigade

15th Mountain Assault Battalion of 128th Mountain Assault Brigade

42nd Mechanized Infantry Battalion of 57th Mechanized Infantry Brigade

70th Battalion of 101st Territorial Defense Brigade,

artillery group of 57th Mechanized Infantry Brigade

 

 Russian MOD Ukr casualty claims credited to air force, strategic rocket services and artillery troops

 

6/26: 720

6/25: 780

6/24:  620 

6/23:  650

6/22:  620

6/21:  570

6/20:  450  

6/19:  400

6/18:  470

 

Between Mariupol and Donbass the Ukrainian marine corps has been decimated past the point of return.

 

Weird that the Ukrainians are allowing indicators of their defeat appear in the media these past few weeks.  I saw a PRAVDA war correspondent claim that the average Ukrainian combat unit is bled white: only 20% professional and 80% conscripts.  I assume that these conscripts are from their reservist pool.

 

In WW2 the German army was in this condition by September 1944.

 

Azot Plant and Severodonesk fell to the Russians today.

 

 

Russian Battalion tactical groups 6/26

 

108 combat battalions (with 19 in reserve) manning 1039 KM of front

 

main effort: 54 battalions manning the Donbass (5.6 KM per BTG)

 

35 battalions manning the Southern front (19KM or 14 KM per BTG)

 

10 battalions manning the Kharkiv axis (17.7 KM per BTG)

 

compared to WW2 these are insanely long distances for such a small army.  So it's literally company sized forces- approx. 200 infantrymen per battalion holding distances that were typically held by 6-18 full battalions of infantry of continuous front. 200 vs 4800- 18,000 infantrymen.

 

The situation for Ukraine has been really dramatic since June 20th.  yesterday there was 1 day of consolidation of territorial gains and this morning the Russians continued the offensive, tighening the noose around Lyshansk.

 

Ukrainians admit that they suffered 15,000 POW minimum in this war.

 

Zelensky on 6/25th executed an emergency order to shift reserves from all fronts to the Donbass.

 

 

The supply corridor to the city is now just 8 kilometers wide, under Russian fire control (artillery, airstrikes, missiles)

6/29th, the Russian MOD claims the following successes:

 

10th Mountain Assault Brigade destroyed with 30 survivors

 

115th Mechanised, 79th Air Assault and 25th Airborne brigade supply lines cut.

 

It is evident on both sides that the Russians have almost completely sealed off the supply roads to Lysychansk.