The Russians also attacked and advanced in the neck of Kursk 'bridgehead' after holding them in place for months.

 

It seems like they might try to squeeze the Ukrainians out.  

 

This whole area was actually a fire sack where the Ukrainian brigades were hit with strikes all the time.

- Cyberattack on X, Musk claims that the IP addresses were from Ukraine.

 

-Trump asked about the escalated Russian attacks (Missiles and in Kursk region starting March 7th) after news that he halted military aid and ISR to Ukraine by the Washington Post; he deflected an answer

 

Ukrainian invasion force almost thrown out of Kursk.  Russian internet/state media reporting on how they ambushed the Ukrainians from the rear by moving 800 troops through oil pipelines.

 

It seems unlikely that the Russians will agree to the ceasefire.

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2025

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the ceasefire proposal that the United States and Ukraine recently agreed upon in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and offered an alternative proposal that undermines US President Donald Trump's stated goal of securing a lasting peace in Ukraine. 

Spoiler

Putin claimed on March 13 that he "agrees" with the temporary ceasefire proposal and that the "idea itself is correct" but that the cessation of hostilities "should be such that it would lead to long-term peace and eliminate the initial causes" of the war.[1] Putin thus rejected one of the main principles of the US-Ukrainian proposal — that the temporary ceasefire precede formal negotiations to end the war.[2] Putin also claimed that there are questions that "require painstaking research from both sides." Putin questioned several aspects of the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal. Putin asked what would happen to the remaining Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and whether Ukraine would be allowed to continue to mobilize forces, train newly mobilized soldiers, and receive military aid from its partners and allies. Putin questioned the control and verification measures of a temporary ceasefire and who would give the orders to stop fighting. Putin suggested that he may call President Trump to discuss the "issues" involved in the ceasefire proposal. Putin postured military strength during his rejection of the ceasefire proposal, highlighting recent Russian successes in pushing Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast and claiming that Russian forces are advancing in "almost all areas of combat."

Putin's rejection of the ceasefire is consistent with March 12 reports from Russian insider sources about the Kremlin's likely response to the proposal.[3] Bloomberg reported on March 12 that sources familiar with the Kremlin's thinking and the situation stated that Putin will "stretch the timeline" for agreeing to the temporary ceasefire in order to ensure that his stipulations "are taken into account." A source close to the Kremlin stated that Russia may demand a halt to weapons supplies to Ukraine as a condition of the temporary ceasefire. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on March 12 that a source close to the Russian Presidential Administration stated that the Kremlin would "formally" give a "positive response" to the temporary ceasefire proposal but would also demand "impossible conditions" to which Ukraine cannot agree. The source stated that Putin wants to remove Ukraine from talks so that Russia can engage in negotiations with the United States alone while also "correcting the situation on the front" to strengthen Russia's negotiating position. ISW assessed on March 12 that these Russian insider source leaks may have been intentional and part of a Russian negotiating strategy that aims to push the United States to renegotiate its deal with Ukraine on the temporary ceasefire.[4] Putin's response to the ceasefire offer suggests that they may also have been at least partially accurate.

 

 

Putin is offering an alternative ceasefire agreement that is contrary to the intentions and goals of the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal. The US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal calls for a renewable 30-day cessation of combat operations along the entire frontline, a moratorium on long-range missile and drone strikes, and a cessation of operations in the Black Sea.[5] The proposal allows for Russia and Ukraine to extend the ceasefire and assumes the continuation of US intelligence sharing and US and other military assistance to Ukraine. The US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal was explicitly aimed at allowing Russia and Ukraine to demonstrate their willingness to make peace and separates the temporary ceasefire from future negotiations to end the war.

 

 

Putin's envisioned ceasefire agreement would grant Russia greatly disproportionate advantages and set conditions for the Kremlin to renew hostilities on terms extremely favorable to Russia. Putin's envisioned ceasefire agreement would likely require the United States and Ukraine's other supporters to pause military assistance to Ukraine and require Ukraine to stop recruiting and training personnel. Such a ceasefire agreement would begin to disarm Ukraine if renewed for a long period of time by preventing its military from reconstituting, training, and equipping itself and would cause Ukraine and the West to surrender significant leverage to Russia. Putin did not suggest that Russia would also cease military recruitment efforts, the production of military equipment, and the receipt of military aid from Russia's allies. Russia's ability to continue these measures during a potential ceasefire while preventing Ukraine from doing so would allow Russia to resume offensive operations with better manned and equipped units at a time of its choosing. Russian forces are currently on the offensive across the theater, as Putin observed, so demands that would prevent Ukrainian forces from reconstituting can only be intended to preserve or enhance Russia's ability to resume the offensive at a later date.  Such demands would seem a clear indication that Putin is not, in fact, committed to making peace.

Putin's attempts to introduce a new ceasefire agreement on terms that asymmetrically benefit Russia ignore Trump's stated intention that the ceasefire set conditions for negotiations toward a more comprehensive peace agreement in the future. An agreement along the lines Putin appears to be offering would undermine the Trump administration's stated objective of bringing about a sustainable peace in Ukraine, would reinforce Putin's belief that Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine, and would incentivize Putin to resume military operations against Ukraine rather than making any concessions in formal negotiations to end the war.

 

Putin is holding the ceasefire proposal hostage and is attempting to extract preemptive concessions ahead of formal negotiations to end the war. Putin refused to accept the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal on its own terms and is instead demanding additional conditions that would contribute directly to the Kremlin's war aims. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on March 11 that the US will "know what the impediment is to peace" in Ukraine if Putin rejected the ceasefire proposal.[6] ISW continues to assess that Putin is disinterested in good faith peace negotiations to end the war.[7] Putin remains committed to accomplishing his long-term goals of installing a pro-Russian puppet regime in Ukraine, undermining Ukraine's ability to defend itself against future Russian aggression and preventing Ukraine's accession to NATO. 

Putin's rejection of the ceasefire proposal underscores Putin's commitment to securing his objectives in Ukraine, particularly Ukraine's demilitarization, and disinterest in any pause in fighting that does not result in Ukrainian capitulation or at least set conditions for a successful renewal of Russian offensive operations in the future.

 

 

Ray Dalio, billionaire hedge fund manager compiled an analysis of the top 24 great powers going forward for his investment group:

 

https://economicprinciples.org/downloads/DalioRay_Power_Index_Appendix.pdf

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/world-most-powerful-nations-where-183000329.html

 

IMHO his list is biased towards finance/measurements of nominal currency (rather than purchasing power) for economic analysis and naturally he and his team have hardly lived in the countries that they are judging this on.  The list is also biased towards western/allied countries.

 

I think there are 3 only great powers in this world: China, US, and Russia.  The rest are regional powers with only moderate potential.

 

For me, no. 1 is obviously China.  It already has the largest real economy in the world by far and an unbeatable army and navy.  Continues with fast economic growth.  Combined with a 'no limits' partnership with Russia and massive trade with it a lot of its strategic weaknesses are eliminated.

 

It does not seem to want to replace the US as the most influential and controlling global hegemon but rather manage the economic/military decline of the West and the United States.  A key objective is de-dollarization.

 

No. 2 the United States.  Very fractured and badly organized nation in which half of the population is highly developed but enslaved by capitalism while the other half lives in 3rd world/developing country conditions.  It has the potential to become a great country but has been failing badly for 30 years while falling into a black hole of consumer and government debt.  Declining on a yearly basis against the rest of the world both economically and militarily.   Yet the country has tremendous potential.

 

No.3 Russia.  A very underrated country due to the hatred it has for the outside world and hated by the combined West.  It is measured the 4th largest economy in the world by purchasing parity and its military remains unbeaten by the combined West in Ukraine.  It is also an unusually self-sufficient and growing country but it is balanced with a lot of problems.  Out of the 3 countries it has the strongest debt position but is dwarfed by China in real economy terms.  Its cities are well developed but it lacks a highly developed and large middle class.  Russia like the US has great potential.

 

 

Eurozone and allied powers of Asia (Australia, South Korea and Japan).  

 

All reached a level of development similar to the US lower-middle class but superior to the bottom half of the US population. 

The nordic countries did better than the rest.

 

Europeans spent money on social services instead of the military, weakening the latter to an alarming extent. 

 

Only South Korea and Japan have capable armed forces/mic but are utterly dwarfed by China's.

 

The 'happy times' for Europe/asia is coming to the end as internal economic/demographic problems and stagnation remained unresolved.

 

Future economic growth will largely have to come from expanding the military against Russia/US retreat from occupied Europe.

 

This will massively lower the civilian standard of living, especially the subsidized poor.

 

Ukraine is almost completely out of kursk, with Russians entering Sumy oblast.

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-18-2025

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not accept the US-Ukrainian proposal for a temporary ceasefire along the frontline and reiterated his demands for a resolution to the war that amount to Ukrainian capitulation.[1] Putin and US President Donald Trump held a phone call on March 18.[2] The Kremlin's official readout of the call stated that Putin emphasized the need to address the "root causes" of the war.[3] Russian officials have repeatedly defined these root causes as NATO's eastward expansion and Ukraine's alleged violations of the rights of Russian-speaking minorities in Ukraine. Russian officials’ calls for the elimination of these "root causes" amount to Russian demands for Ukraine's permanent neutrality and the installation of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.[4]

Putin demanded on March 18 that Ukraine stop mobilizing (i.e. recruiting and training) forces during a potential temporary ceasefire. Putin also called for a halt to all foreign military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine but did not discuss Russia's military support from North Korea, the People's Republic of China (PRC), and Iran.[5] Putin claimed that Russia and the United States should continue their efforts toward a peace settlement in "bilateral mode," excluding Ukraine or Europe from future negotiations about the war in Ukraine. Putin's demands on the March 18 call parallel the demands he made on March 13.[6]

Spoiler

ISW continues to assess that Putin is attempting to hold the temporary ceasefire proposal hostage in order to extract preemptive concessions ahead of formal negotiations to end the war.[7] ISW also continues to assess that Putin's demands for the removal of the legitimate government of Ukraine, the weakening of the Ukrainian military such that it cannot defend against future Russian aggression, and the denial of Ukraine's sovereignty and independence remain unchanged.[8] The persistence of Putin's demands for Ukraine's capitulation demonstrates that Putin is not interested in good-faith negotiations to pursue Trump's stated goal of achieving a lasting peace in Ukraine.

Trump and Putin agreed on a temporary moratorium on long-range strikes against energy infrastructure, but the exact contours of the moratorium remain unclear at this time. The Kremlin stated that Putin accepted Trump's proposal for a 30-day moratorium on strikes against "energy infrastructure" and that Putin "immediately gave the Russian military the corresponding order," whereas the White House stated that Putin and Trump agreed to "an energy and infrastructure ceasefire."[9] It is unclear which targets are explicitly prohibited under the 30-day moratorium given the difference in language between the two readouts of the call.

The Kremlin also stated that Putin "informed" Trump that Russia and Ukraine will each exchange 175 prisoners of war (POWs) on March 19 and that Russia will also transfer 23 seriously wounded Ukrainian soldiers, whom Putin claimed are currently undergoing medical treatment in Russian hospitals, as a "gesture of goodwill." The March 11 US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal stated that Ukrainian and American delegations discussed POW exchanges as part of the peace process, particularly during a potential temporary ceasefire on the frontline.[10] The White House stated on March 18 that Russia and the United States will "immediately" begin negotiations in an unspecified country in the Middle East about a temporary maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, a "full ceasefire," and a permanent peace settlement.[11] The Kremlin stated that the United States and Russia are creating "expert groups" to continue efforts to achieve a peace settlement "in bilateral mode."[12]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky endorsed the Trump-Putin energy strikes moratorium agreement on March 18 and said that Ukraine expects to receive additional information from Trump about the proposal.[13] Zelensky stated that Ukraine would not accept a situation in which Russia strikes Ukrainian energy infrastructure and Ukraine is unable to respond.

Putin continues to hold the temporary ceasefire hostage, likely to extract further concessions from US President Donald Trump and delay or spoil negotiations for an enduring peace in Ukraine. Putin rejected a temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea but agreed to participate in negotiations on such an agreement, which Putin will likely use to delay or spoil negotiations for a permanent peace agreement.[14] Putin also did not accept the US-Ukrainian temporary frontline ceasefire and continued to cite concerns that call back to his pre-war demands amounting to Ukraine's total capitulation and regime change. The Kremlin readout stated that Putin and Trump discussed the development of bilateral economic and energy cooperation, though White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that future US-Russian relations would include "enormous economic deals...only when peace has been achieved."[15]

Putin spoke at the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Congress before his call with Trump on March 18 and claimed that some Western companies that left Russia following the February 2022 full-scale invasion now seek to return or are taking steps to return to Russia and that Russia will consider this return through the lens of prioritizing Russian businesses.[16] Putin ordered the Russian Cabinet of Ministers to create a procedure for Western businesses to return to Russia.[17] Putin is likely attempting to bypass the Trump administration's stated conditions of concluding economic deals after achieving peace in Ukraine by extracting concessions for sanctions relief or other economic concessions in preliminary talks for a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine, as other Kremlin officials have attempted in recent weeks.[18]

 

 

Russian forces are starting to seep into Sumy; probably they are trying to repeat what they did in Kharkiv and create a fixing operation in enemy territory and prevent them from crossing the border.

 

 

The Russians have Luhansk Oblast and their biggest final challenge in the war is the concentration of Donetsk Oblast cities.  They are positioned outside of the fortified Pokrovsk line.

 

 

They are also starting to seep deeper into Z-Oblast.  The final Kherson Bridgehead has not been attempted at all for ages.

 

The Russians will probably try to clear Donetsk first, and then concentrate on the Southern front after they are done.  If they attempt to take the cities they have to systematically blow them up street by street like Bakhmut  and Mariupol.

 

 

 

This year, china's honor guard is in the parade.  They also have the iranian drones and the T-14 MBT.

 

Finally.

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/DJJP8ZJR4MB/

This year, Moscow's parade includes delegates from 29 of their allied countries with China & North Korea given focus. 

 

Putin sitting next to Xi, obviously a political signal to the West.

 

This parade is kind of low budget compared to China's military parade...

 

 

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