Cult Icon Posted March 3 Posted March 3 Quite obvious that Elon Musk doesn't care about Ukraine either- they just want to get rid of the problem to focus on other things. From watching these people (Trump, JD, Rubio, Musk) so far they appear to be completely out of their depth with Ukraine. Quote
Matt! Posted March 3 Posted March 3 7 hours ago, Cult Icon said: The Trump administration intends to repair relations with Russia, cut Europe/Ukraine loose, and pivot the US against China. The minerals deal is incredibly insulting to the Ukrainians who have suffered catastrophic losses and suffered so much only to get robbed by their 'overlord'. This is why Ukraine initially rejected the deal. It is also quite obvious in that meeting that Trump/JD don't really care about Ukraine's fate, they want to rid the administration of the burden. Riddle me this, If China decides to take Taiwan by force, how is the US going to defend it without its allies? You think you can park your Pacific Fleet 100 miles from the coast of China without getting hit by hundreds of missiles? USA abandoning its allies (and possibly leaving NATO) and aligning with Russia will have catastrophic consequences for the American people as well as its allies. Since MAGA's are so opposed to the NATO because it has "never helped us and we are the only ones paying for it" - after 9/11 all NATO allies answered the call after invoking article 5. What else do they have left? If they wanna keep pushing Russia out of their country, they need weapons and manpower and at this point they're lacking both. No they don't give a *** about Europe, Ukraine or its people. Quote
Matt! Posted March 3 Posted March 3 Can't wait to see how the tariffs on Canada, EU and Mexico will hit the US economy. Since most MAGA's don't know how the tariffs work, here it is with bananas and monkeys: Let’s imagine a jungle where a group of monkeys love eating bananas. But not all bananas grow in their part of the jungle—some come from a neighboring monkey tribe that grows them more efficiently. So, the local monkeys trade shiny stones for these bananas, getting them at a good price. One day, the monkey chief decides he wants the local monkeys to grow more of their own bananas instead of relying on the neighboring tribe. To do this, he places a "banana tariff"—a rule that says any imported banana now costs extra shiny stones. Now, what happens? Imported Bananas Get More Expensive – Since the tariff makes foreign bananas pricier, the local monkeys have to pay more shiny stones to get the same bananas they used to enjoy cheaply. Local Banana Farmers Get a Boost... But Not Efficiently – Some monkeys try growing bananas themselves, but they’re not as good at it. Their bananas take longer to grow and aren’t as tasty, but because imported bananas are now expensive, local monkeys have no choice but to buy them. Monkeys Have Fewer Shiny Stones to Spend Elsewhere – Since they’re spending more on bananas, they have fewer shiny stones for things like coconuts, hammocks, or jungle parties. Other monkey businesses start struggling. The Other Tribe Strikes Back – Angry at the new tariff, the neighboring monkeys put their own tax on the shiny stones or on something they sell to the first tribe, like delicious mangoes. Now, both tribes are worse off! In short, tariffs make bananas (or real-world goods) more expensive, hurt trade, and can lead to retaliation. While they might help some local banana growers, the entire jungle ends up paying the price. Quote
Cult Icon Posted March 4 Posted March 4 @Matt! @SympathysSilhouette and here we go... Live updates: Trump orders a ‘pause’ of US military aid for Ukraine https://apnews.com/live/donald-trump-news-updates-3-3-2025 Quote
Matt! Posted March 4 Posted March 4 1 hour ago, Cult Icon said: and here we go... We are already going. EDIT: Elmo didn't like it. Quote
SympathysSilhouette Posted March 4 Posted March 4 6 hours ago, Cult Icon said: @Matt! @SympathysSilhouette and here we go... Live updates: Trump orders a ‘pause’ of US military aid for Ukraine https://apnews.com/live/donald-trump-news-updates-3-3-2025 Kind of expected this. Not sure what it means in the long term. The problem is that Europe cannot provide for everything the U.S. did, so it's not just a question of money. The Europeans do seem finally ready to cough up enough money as the Ukrainians might need but it's really equipment and operational capabilities they require right now and some stuff is near impossible to do without the U.S. One military expert I saw talk on this issue yesterday said it will take a committed Europe that is determined to do it and pours enough money into it 3-5 years to recreate a modest version of the kind of command structure and intelligence gathering apparatus that the U.S. takes for granted. Obviously Ukraine does not have that much time, they might only have months if the U.S. does indeed close the military aid valve completely. Quote
Cult Icon Posted March 4 Posted March 4 7 hours ago, SympathysSilhouette said: Kind of expected this. Not sure what it means in the long term. The problem is that Europe cannot provide for everything the U.S. did, so it's not just a question of money. The Europeans do seem finally ready to cough up enough money as the Ukrainians might need but it's really equipment and operational capabilities they require right now and some stuff is near impossible to do without the U.S. One military expert I saw talk on this issue yesterday said it will take a committed Europe that is determined to do it and pours enough money into it 3-5 years to recreate a modest version of the kind of command structure and intelligence gathering apparatus that the U.S. takes for granted. Obviously Ukraine does not have that much time, they might only have months if the U.S. does indeed close the military aid valve completely. The Russian/Ukrainian general staff are the most combat experienced staff officers in the whole world at this point in real peer to peer advanced combat. Everybody else is inexperienced compared to them. The loss of US ISR would definitely make it more easy for the Russians to launch more effective strikes and maybe even re-open the possibilities for maneuver warfare at the local level if real-time detection capabilities degrade severely. Even after Ukraine exhausts its current supply of 40-something year olds, Europeans can hold out in western and central Ukraine (worst case scenario) without technology, organization, and ammunition if they provide a steady stream of manpower to refill and rebuild burnt out Ukranian brigades on the frontline. That's all they really need to do on the baseline as Russia refuses to escalate their war beyond a 'Special Military Operation'. I wonder is if there is any political will to gather enough volunteers and even conscript Europeans to send to Ukraine? Quote
SympathysSilhouette Posted March 4 Posted March 4 They don't really have much choice, a Russian victory in which the map is redrawn along the current front lines is much more of an issue for Europe than the current stalemate. For one thing, it would open up Crimea as an effective launch pad, in which case the entire Black Sea comes into play. The real question is how much appetite Ukraine has left for something that keeps on going for several more years. I'm guessing not too much. Quote
Matt! Posted March 4 Posted March 4 19 minutes ago, SympathysSilhouette said: For one thing, it would open up Crimea as an effective launch pad, in which case the entire Black Sea comes into play. I don't think Turkey Türkiye will agree. Quote
SympathysSilhouette Posted March 5 Posted March 5 Wait, they are already walking back the tariffs? Quote
Matt! Posted March 5 Posted March 5 5 hours ago, SympathysSilhouette said: Wait, they are already walking back the tariffs? The Art of the Deal. Quote
SympathysSilhouette Posted March 6 Posted March 6 The Trump administration might revoke the refugee status of 240K Ukrainians, essentially triggering a mass deportation at a time when the situation on the ground is going to become much more dangerous. Whatever this administration goals are with its Ukraine policies, they can now no longer pretend in good faith that their primary concern is to save lives. Quote
Matt! Posted March 6 Posted March 6 40 minutes ago, SympathysSilhouette said: The Trump administration might revoke the refugee status of 240K Ukrainians, essentially triggering a mass deportation at a time when the situation on the ground is going to become much more dangerous. Whatever this administration goals are with its Ukraine policies, they can now no longer pretend in good faith that their primary concern is to save lives. That's absolutely disgusting. Never been, it's to save the Russian economy and make Putler the winner of this war. Quote
Cult Icon Posted March 9 Posted March 9 On 3/3/2025 at 7:06 AM, Matt! said: Riddle me this, If China decides to take Taiwan by force, how is the US going to defend it without its allies? You think you can park your Pacific Fleet 100 miles from the coast of China without getting hit by hundreds of missiles? USA abandoning its allies (and possibly leaving NATO) and aligning with Russia will have catastrophic consequences for the American people as well as its allies. Since MAGA's are so opposed to the NATO because it has "never helped us and we are the only ones paying for it" - after 9/11 all NATO allies answered the call after invoking article 5. What else do they have left? If they wanna keep pushing Russia out of their country, they need weapons and manpower and at this point they're lacking both. I disagree with a couple of your opinions. You seem to agree with some 'mainstream western media' views that are promoted by state governments (US/Europe) and the Democratic party. 1. The US military industrial complex is not militarily strong enough to defeat China by force. The Trump administration are pro-Russia China hawks that want a refocusing on China and repairing relations with Russia. They also want an imperial withdrawal from the occupation of Europe. After the American defeat in the middle east, the US military started pivoting towards war against Russia and China combined. Anti-NATO sentiments have been with Republicans for decades actually. European NATO countries are individually militarily quite weak. 2. On tariffs and other economics issue it is an extension of the corruption of Donald Trump helping his campaign donors but also part of the elitist (ultra rich) libertarian thinking that has been going on for decades as well. Purge the government, radically restructure the economy. This is what Elon Musk and the Tech bro ultra rich have been thinking about, an in some cases writing about. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction First cause a recession, and from the ashes a new type economy will be born. It also resembles what a lot of American boomers (my dad's generation) have nostalgia for. The re-industrialization of the US and less trade with the outside world, and less debt. I agree that what Trump is doing is really disorganized and I have doubts that re-industrialization can ever happen in the way they want. 3. Russia decisively won the war in Ukraine in 2022. The West has no idea about Russian strategy or how they fight wars and have been misreporting/recycling pro-Ukrainian Ukr/US/UK/NATO propaganda for 3 years. Quote
Cult Icon Posted March 9 Posted March 9 On 3/4/2025 at 10:20 AM, SympathysSilhouette said: They don't really have much choice, a Russian victory in which the map is redrawn along the current front lines is much more of an issue for Europe than the current stalemate. For one thing, it would open up Crimea as an effective launch pad, in which case the entire Black Sea comes into play. The real question is how much appetite Ukraine has left for something that keeps on going for several more years. I'm guessing not too much. The Russian army is currently approx. 640,000 men in Ukraine sub-divided into 3 sections: Frontline, Reserves, and Rear-area training and rebuilding. It is really not a big army to occupy a 1,300 kilometer frontline. Europe has vast manpower superiority over Russia and could easily supply all the infantry Ukraine would need if there were, say, over 1 million men willing to fight for Ukraine. But they are 3 years too late and it looks like Europeans do not have the stomach to fight in any type of war. Putin has accomplished perhaps 80% of his minimalist territorial goals (annexed in 2022) and managed to do this without rebuilding the Soviet Army, without mobilizing more reservists and causing a threat to his dictatorship. It seems that once he appointed an economist and his staff as defense minister they went for a strategy of recruiting contract troops with very generous benefits (like the US, if not relatively more) that would propel people willing to risk their lives into the Russian middle class. It seems that the war in a current negotiated settlement would end up with Ukraine being reduced into a base-ball shaped sized country with the south/east in Russia hands. And it is more likely than not that a restart of hostilities will happen some time down the line. And it would require the 'de-militarization' of Ukraine which is a non-starter for NATO. That is also a minimalist goal for Putin and he can't walk away from this war without disarming the Ukrainian ground force. And Ukraine's high demands in exchange for their massive sacrifices make negotiation very difficult. There is a possibility that Trump will fail and the Russians would just continue grinding the frontlines with artillery & drone warfare everyday for years if need be until Ukraine surrenders to their minimalist goals. Quote
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