SympathysSilhouette Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Enrico_sw said: Who is defending this invasion in the West? On a political level, the operation is not good for Putin so far. The whole world is against him and he can't hold a cold war type propaganda for long. People have phones, internet, social media. You can censor mainstream media (that fewer people trust anyway), but not the internet. And it may just be a small leak at first, but soon the leakage would grow larger. I hope this de-escalates quickly and he retreats. It's pretty sure he'll want to at least claim some sort of victory or compromise (though we don't know what it'll be) Tucker Carlson (one of the most watched cable shows in America) was still defending him a couple of days ago. Quote
SympathysSilhouette Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 Just now, Matt! said: $1 million bounty on Putin offered by Russian businessman https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/1-million-bounty-on-putin-offered-by-russian-businessman/ar-AAUvfnL If I was this guy, I wouldn't go near any open windows and I would check what I drink and eat in the next days and weeks. Quote
Enrico_sw Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 Just now, SympathysSilhouette said: Tucker Carlson (one of the most watched cable shows in America) was still defending him a couple of days ago. Do you have quotes? Examples? I'm very cautious with these things. Americans politics are extremely tense, I'm very cautious with how this conflict may be used for domestic politics. Quote
Matt! Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, SympathysSilhouette said: If I was this guy, I wouldn't go near any open windows and I would check what I drink and eat in the next days and weeks. Quote
Enrico_sw Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 Maybe I'm wrong or too optimistic, but I can't see Russian soldiers blindly massacring too many civilians. The death toll is already high (I hear 2,000 civilians), but I can't see big scale massacres happening. Not in a brother Nation. If Wagner legions or Chechens are given carte blanche, then the story might be different... because these guys could go extremely bloody. Russian soldiers don't show their usual ruthlessness here: Quote
Enrico_sw Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 ^ But then again, I might be very wrong, given how people talked about nukes only a couple of days ago... Quote
Enrico_sw Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 What seems to have been underestimated by Putin is how democratic ideals are cherished by people who have lived under authoritarian regimes. He may think it's weak, but democracy is still seen as a jewel by many. But what seems extremely strange to me is how people in democratic countries seem to admire authoritarian regimes (I'm still so surprised by how many people still admire Xi for example). Quote
Cult Icon Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 The Russians released their own figures for their casualties. They also released their own claims for their enemy (March 2nd). This is obviously in response to the Ukrainian claims of over 7000 KIA (March 2nd). Note that the Ukrainians are claiming mostly KIA, and relatively few WIA/MIA. From experience I would treat these Russian numbers as the absolute minimum personnel losses. The Ukrainian claims would be the maximum (typically claims in combat are inflated if they aren't fake) So the truth is somewhere in-between. The Russian claims should be the "Maximum" possible, they are most likely inflated as well. https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-498-its-soldiers-killed-1597-wounded-ukraine-ria-2022-03-02/ Russian minimum losses (March 2nd): 498 KIA, 1587 WIA. Of this, the maximum KIA is 7000. Ukrainian maximum losses: Russians claim 2870 KIA, 3700 WIA, 572 prisoners. Usually the prisoners number is accurate but the KIA/WIA are just estimates. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/over-7000-russian-troops-killed-since-start-invasion-ukrainian-official-2022-03-02/ By American standards, these personnel losses would lead to political/public outrage- by Russian standards these are normal... Quote
Enrico_sw Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, Cult Icon said: The Russians released their own figures for their casualties. They also released their own claims for their enemy (March 2nd). This is obviously in response to the Ukrainian claims of over 7000 KIA (March 2nd). Note that the Ukrainians are claiming mostly KIA, and relatively few WIA/MIA. From experience I would treat these Russian numbers as the absolute minimum personnel losses. The Ukrainian claims would be the maximum (typically claims in combat are inflated if they aren't fake) So the truth is somewhere in-between. The Russian claims should be the "Maximum" possible, they are most likely inflated as well. https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-498-its-soldiers-killed-1597-wounded-ukraine-ria-2022-03-02/ Russian minimum losses (March 2nd): 498 KIA, 1587 WIA. Of this, the maximum KIA is 7000. Ukrainian maximum losses: Russians claim 2870 KIA, 3700 WIA, 572 prisoners. Usually the prisoners number is accurate but the KIA/WIA are just estimates. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/over-7000-russian-troops-killed-since-start-invasion-ukrainian-official-2022-03-02/ By American standards, these personnel losses would lead to political/public outrage- by Russian standards these are normal... Yeah, Russian soldiers are seen as expandable by the military staff... I'm wondering how acceptable civilian losses will be for the Russian's public opinion. Though there's lots of misinformation/propaganda, there's still social media and I can't see a deadly fratricidal war being acceptable for them (if it was a war against Chechens or Afghans, the story would be different). I don't think that the "nazi" argument will be easy to swallow either, especially if many civilians are killed. Quote
Cult Icon Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 6 hours ago, Enrico_sw said: Yeah, Russian soldiers are seen as expandable by the military staff... I'm wondering how acceptable civilian losses will be for the Russian's public opinion. I have an impression that the Russians' attitude toward war is different from the West, they are more casualty insensitive, which is also why they have the politics in place to maintain a huge army/police state. The fall of Kherson (city to the south) just came up on the news. Also 5 Ukrainian cities are getting enveloped right now. I think the Russians are mainly not using a lot of infantry. At least I haven't seen any evidence of it. They are largely fighting from vehicles. They are also fighting from mobile armored columns down roads. The Ukrainians are well equipped with Anti-tank weapons. The ratio of Ukrainian vehicle claims to Russian personel claims is low. Their claims of destroyed Russian vehicles (tanks, AFV, trucks, etc) are probably approaching the 1000 mark-by now. However once the Russians engage the cities they must use a lot of infantry and do house-to house fighting with support of airpower, artillery/missiles, & armor. I suspect that the dramatic shoot-up in claimed Russian casualties today has something to do with the urban combat at Kherson and Maruipol these past 2-3 days. Marupiol hasn't fallen yet. Some of the wreck patterns I've seen (and posted here) look like smaller versions of this, like the wrecks on Zhitomir highway (going into Kyiv) and a lot of news of Ukrainians repulsing convoys from different locations: The Russians will launch an offensive against these cities soon..I feel like the media is not anticipating this very well. Also there is little talk and political action to help the Ukrainians in a serious manner, and at least get them to launch their own counteroffensive. Various NATO countries are supplying them with a lot of anti-aircraft and anti-tank small arms but the Ukrainians have proven that they have decent anti-tank power. This seems not promising at all, and reflects how much the West is afraid of confronting Russia and WW3. Quote
Cult Icon Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, SympathysSilhouette said: Tucker Carlson (one of the most watched cable shows in America) was still defending him a couple of days ago. How is Donald going to explain his friendship with Putin now? !! Quote
Cult Icon Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 4 hours ago, Enrico_sw said: From a strategic point of view, the death of civilians in a brother nation can be very detrimental to Putin's propaganda. Even if it's only a week and the forces may advance and besiege Kyiv, I don't think they'll get a lot of support if many "Brother civilians" are killed. Also, Putin can't hit Kyiv like he did with Grozny (because few people cared about Chechens in Russia, but it's not the same story with Ukraine). Kyiv is the cradle of the Slavic civilization. Ukrainian's "war on images" has been very efficient so far (and I pass no value judgement either). Can only guess why Putin directly targeted civilians so aggressively. It does seem very detrimental, increasing Ukrainian fighting morale and also angering the interntional community. The first thought when I looked at all the reports this morning was that these "nuisance raids" were meant as a distraction- to keep civilians and Ukrainian soldiers occupied with the damage while the Russian forces resupply and organize. These nuisance raids are a real tactic in war, just attacking "easy" targets like civilians would cause the defender to move resources to protect them and manage various local crisies, thus weakening the main defense. I find the Ukraine doing well to boast the morale of their people and their soldiers. However I am unsure if this boasting contributes to what they really need- serious help from the West. There is already backroom communication with the US military and various NATO members are moving their resources, maybe something will emerge that will have material effect. The protrayal of the Putin/Russians as incompetent and stupid is strange to me, as usually the American media protrayals them as machiavellian. Quote
SympathysSilhouette Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 8 hours ago, Enrico_sw said: ^ But then again, I might be very wrong, given how people talked about nukes only a couple of days ago... There are already considerable civilian casualties. But most of them from air strikes and artillery. But the thing about Russian infantry being reluctant to inflict civilian casualties: that can change pretty quickly. Especially if we get into close-quarters urban combat. Quote
Cult Icon Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 Right now the Ukrainians are negotiating with the Russians over peace. https://t.me/UkraineNow/3677 Russian troops assaulting Enerhodar town with over 100 vehicles, attacking civilian population - Mayor Dmytro Orlov Mariupol still being contested: https://t.me/dvish_alive/8760 Quote
Cult Icon Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 abandoned Russian vehicles Kharkiv, battlefield: Quote
Cult Icon Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 Zelensky pressing for NATO air support yesterday/today 2nd round of Ukraine-Russia talks completed: "the parties agreed on humanitarian corridors for evacuation of people and delivery of medicines in the areas of the most active hostilities, as well as a temporary ceasefire during the evacuation. " 3rd round to come. Quote
Cult Icon Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 Big movements of Russian aircraft building up in Belarus, Russians attacking Energodor with its nuclear power plants Many Ukrainian cities and towns are on Red Alert right now, anticipating Russian air attacks. This is the first time I've seen so many red alerts at one time. They are still coming in. Russian frigate Hetman Sahaidachny submerged https://t.me/dumskaya_net/31474 Quote
Matt! Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 redditsave.com_a_snapshot_of_the_russian_economy_an_investment-93bsrzpo77l81.mp4 @Stromboli1 @Cult Icon @Enrico_sw @SympathysSilhouette Quote
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