With the withdrawal of Wagner PMC for rebuilding, Ukraine has begun their counteroffensive at the Z-Oblast front. So far it appears that the news flow claiming that the West ran out of reserve ammo, Western production of ammunition is poor, and Ukraine's ammunition situation is very depleted is so far evident.
There are no weeks long interdiction strike operations (instead it was the Russian air force and missiles that destroyed many targets- including dozens of warehouses and ammo dumps along with strike footage of 60 Ukrainian radar and artillery systems destroyed by Kamikaze drones )
The Ukr attack performance has been quite poor from 6/4-6/8, almost no ground gained and so far it has been a turkey shoot with high Ukrainian losses of men and material. Russian forces claim up to 5000 Ukr casualties and hundreds of vehicles knocked out, including visually confirmed drone footage of French and German tanks. They also released footage of over 75 Ukr vehicles getting blown up, more will certainly appear.
This appears to be first stage of the offensive, and there will be a middle and final act, still to come. What is striking however the lack of fire support, this shows that the Russian strategy to drag out the war and force Ukraine to use up thousands of artillery shells a day has had a material impact.
The big 1,000 dollar question is whether or not the USA is committed enough to self-cannibalize its own ammunition stockpiles to continue the war. If they are perhaps Ukraine will have a nasty surprise up their sleeve in the coming weeks. I doubt that this offensive will last more than a month and they can terminate the offensive at any time and shift to defense.
Overall, if these results continue the war may end with a negotiation in a few months due the collapsed Ukrainian ammo supply. Without ammunition Ukraine will have to terminate the war and accept a peace deal.
It seems overall that the maneuver warfare and tanks have become terribly dangerous due to modern ISR, drones, artillery and PGM. It's just too easy to destroy 20 million dollar tanks and other armored vehicles.