The "What Are You Thinking About Right Now?" PIP

[CandleVixen]

 

that’s all. 

[Stormbringer]

1 hour ago, jkjk said:

@Stormbringer's favs.

 

 

[Matt!]

1 minute ago, Stormbringer said:

 

 

 

[Stormbringer]

7 minutes ago, Matt! said:

 

 

 

[Matt!]

3 minutes ago, jkjk said:

Maybe you can visit Pretty and meet the tarantulas, you might like them?

 

You could let us know how it goes.

 

+1 

[Stormbringer]

4 minutes ago, jkjk said:

Maybe you can visit Pretty and meet the tarantulas, you might like them?

 

You could let us know how it goes.

 

 

 

 

I'd rather keep a safe distance between the tarantulas and me.

[Matt!]

Just now, Stormbringer said:

 

 

 

I'd rather keep a safe distance between the tarantulas and me.

 

What's that, 100 miles just to be safe ? 

[Stormbringer]

Just now, Matt! said:

 

What's that, 100 miles just to be safe ? 

 

More or less, yes  

 

[Prettyphile]

I want an Ostrich.....

[jkjk]

^  Now, that's really expensive. And dangerous. You would be the only one near by, though.

[Prettyphile]

3 hours ago, jkjk said:

^  Now, that's really expensive. And dangerous. You would be the only one near by, though.

My grandparents had a pair of them when I was young and I found that if you raise them from chicks they're completely fine with you... you are the food bringer, and they're smart enough to recognize that, and as long as you learn it's demeanor and body language you can more often then not avoid kicks.. As for expensive meh... subjective. You can get a baby for 500-600, and my family has horses so giving them the space and food they need isn't an issue at all. I just don't know if I want to put the time into raising one. I may be getting a Bullmastiff puppy soonish and would rather put the time and energy into properly training the doge.

[jkjk]

^  I imagine you are right about the food bringer aspect of it. That's probably true with most animals. And I guess avoiding kicks is not much different than avoiding kicks from horses, which is doable.

 

I'm always going to say go with the dog option.  

[Matt!]

New Study Estimates the Odds of Life and Intelligence Emerging Beyond Our Planet

 

Columbia astronomer uses Bayesian statistics to shed light on how extraterrestrial life might evolve in alien worlds.

 

Quote

 

Humans have been wondering whether we are alone in the universe since antiquity.

 

We know from the geological record that life started relatively quickly, as soon our planet's environment was stable enough to support it. We also know that the first multicellular organism, which evolved to produce today’s technological civilization, took far longer to emerge, approximately 4 billion years.

 

But despite knowing when life first appeared on Earth, scientists still do not understand how life occurred, which has important implications for the likelihood of finding life elsewhere in the universe.

 

In a new paper published in the Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences today, David Kipping, an assistant professor in Columbia’s Department of Astronomy, shows how an analysis using a statistical technique called Bayesian inference could shed light on how complex extraterrestrial life might evolve in alien worlds.

 

“The rapid emergence of life and the late evolution of humanity, in the context of the timeline of evolution, are certainly suggestive,” Kipping said. “But in this study it’s possible to actually quantify what the facts tell us.”  

 

To conduct his analysis, Kipping used the chronology of the earliest evidence for life and the evolution of humanity. He asked how often we would expect life and intelligence to re-emerge if Earth’s history were to repeat, re-running the clock over and over again.

 

Kipping framed the problem in terms of four possible answers: Life is common and often develops intelligence, life is rare but often develops intelligence, life is common and rarely develops intelligence and, finally, life is rare and rarely develops intelligence. 

 

“The analysis can only provide statistical probabilities, but the case for a universe teeming with life emerges as the favored bet." 

 

This method of Bayesian statistical inference—used to update the probability for a hypothesis as evidence or new information becomes available—states prior beliefs about the system being modeled, which are then combined with data to cast probabilities of outcomes.

 

“The technique is akin to betting odds,” Kipping said. “It encourages the repeated testing of new evidence against your position, in essence a positive feedback loop of refining your estimates of likelihood of an event.”

 

From these four hypotheses, Kipping used Bayesian mathematical formulas to weigh the models against one another. “In Bayesian inference, prior probability distributions always need to be selected,” Kipping said. “But a key result here is that when one compares the rare-life versus common-life scenarios, the common-life scenario is always at least nine times more likely than the rare one.”

 

The analysis is based on evidence that life emerged within 300 million years of the formation of the Earth’s oceans as found in carbon-13-depleted zircon deposits, a very fast start in the context of Earth’s lifetime. Kipping emphasizes that the ratio is at least 9:1 or higher, depending on the true value of how often intelligence develops.

 

Kipping’s conclusion is that if planets with similar conditions and evolutionary timelines to Earth are common, then the analysis suggests that life should have little problem spontaneously emerging on other planets. And what are the odds that these extraterrestrial lives could be complex, differentiated and intelligent? Here, Kipping’s inquiry is less assured, finding just 3:2 odds that intelligence is rare.

 

This result stems from humanity’s relatively late appearance in Earth’s habitable window, suggesting that its development was neither an easy nor ensured process. “If we played Earth’s history again, the emergence of intelligence is actually somewhat unlikely,” he said.

Kipping points out that the odds in the study aren’t overwhelming, being quite close to 50:50, and the findings should be treated as no more than a gentle nudge toward a hypothesis.

 

“The analysis can’t provide certainties or guarantees, only statistical probabilities based on what happened here on Earth,” Kipping said. “Yet encouragingly, the case for a universe teeming with life emerges as the favored bet. The search for intelligent life in worlds beyond Earth should be by no means discouraged.”

 

 

https://news.columbia.edu/life-intelligence-universe-earth-bayesian-statistics

[Prettyphile]

Listening to live Atlanta Police Dispatch - Zone 6 East - Dead Air O.o

 

The second day the cops in Atlanta aren't on duty for the most part.

Atlanta Police Zone 2 sign says office is temporarily closed.

 

Police officers across the U.S have quit their jobs in recent days and tonight reports of Atlanta officers walking off the job in zone 6 and zone 3 is next.

#BackTheBlue

"Atlanta police officers are refusing to answer the radio and walking off of the job. The county can go screw themselves. If you want a society without police we’ll give you one. Let it burn!" quote from ATL police officer's email

Well, there you have it.

 

There are 9,650 streamers listening to absolute silence to @Atlanta_Police dispatch zone 6. Another 1,349 listening to zone 5! It is absolute silence besides the one supervisor trying to figure out what to do! Congrats Officers! Wait until the “protesters” find out there is no PD

Atlanta Police Radio Silence 3 hours and counting for Zones 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.  One ground report that Zone 1 Police are on duty.

#Atlanta Police Department, Zone 1: Everyone is here. Cop confirmed that he heard about other zones walking off

 

I tried calling multiple Atlanta police stations non-emergency numbers, no answer

Reports that all Atlanta police dispatchers have also walked away from their jobs.

The Atlanta Police radio silence is deafening - it appears they have Walked Away.

Police Zone 5 shares scanner with Fire dept, no police calls are happening.

Atlanta Police Zone 5 and Fire Dispatch - no police calls, only paramedic, etc. (on Broadcastify).

Listening to Atlanta Police Dispatch Zone 6 East ... 1 radio call in 20 mins answered only by a Supervisor

 

 

 

 

---

I'm heart broken  

[Stromboli1]

Far leftists are a cult religion, far right are racist assholes, Democrats are phonies, and Republicans are weak.

[Stromboli1]

Shit is getting real between India and China which very few are covering.

[Enrico_sw]

Amy Adams is made up of dreams material and hot cells

[Enrico_sw]

9 hours ago, Matt! said:

New Study Estimates the Odds of Life and Intelligence Emerging Beyond Our Planet

 

Columbia astronomer uses Bayesian statistics to shed light on how extraterrestrial life might evolve in alien worlds.

 

 

https://news.columbia.edu/life-intelligence-universe-earth-bayesian-statistics

 

It's basically what Drake tried to model with his Drake equation. This guy's model is more refined (and I do like Bayesian inference, it's often a nice way of tackling an issue), but there are still many uncertainties. Anyway, it's always entertaining to look at these types of papers.

 

I'm fairly conviced that there's life in our galaxy, but there are lots of questions. Are they more advanced than us? If so, do they have a way to travel fast? (breaking the speed of light limit, which would shed new light - no pun intended - on our views on physics) If they can meet us, will they be friendly or hostile?

 

Many great questions